Analyst Matthew Dixon points out that Pepe is at a critical point. Analyzing last month's performance, he notes a bearish divergence in the RSI as the trigger for the drop from $0.00001448 to $0.0000102 in just two weeks.
It states that due to this drop, two things could happen: the price could continue to decline or start to bounce back. However, the trajectory of Pepe's price will depend on whether the support holds or not.
Dixon's analysis places the support zone between $0.00001 and $0.0000095. It indicates that if this meme coin falls below this level, the downward acceleration will be intense. Losing this area could generate panic among sellers, forcing the price down to $0.000007.
However, it adds that if there is a possibility for the bulls to regain control, the resistance zone between $0.0000115 and $0.000012 will play a crucial role. Recovering this way could initiate a broader movement. Nevertheless, the main signal that this will happen is a bullish divergence with the RSI.
The analyst notes that, under current conditions, Pepe is in a crucial short-term situation. However, the long-term price forecast for Pepe for 2025 and subsequent years suggests that the situation could change in favor of bullish investors.
The dominance of whales in Pepe has taken a hard hit. According to IntoTheBlock, large holders now control only 43% of the supply, the lowest level since December 2023.
What this data suggests is that large companies are withdrawing from PEPE, allowing retail investors to take the initiative. When this happens, volatility tends to increase. Unlike whales, who usually hold long-term positions, retail investors tend to react to short-term sentiment, which means that Pepe's price may struggle to maintain long-term gains.
The exit of the whales has not occurred in isolation. It has been accompanied by a growing bearish sentiment. According to Coinglass, the long/short ratio has fallen to its lowest level in two weeks. At Binance, a clear surge in the opening of short positions by traders has been observed, indicating expectations of further declines.
Given these conditions, Dixon's forecast of a possible drop to $0.000007 may not be too far from reality. With more traders betting against the price and whales retreating, the scenario may be set for Pepe to continue falling in the short term.
