In 2025, XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) twice approached the all-time record at $4. The first time was just before the inauguration of the US President, when XRP's price surged and peaked at around $3.40. After that, the coin went through a prolonged decline before unexpectedly regaining upward momentum, reaching a new 52-week high of $3.65 on July 17. Currently, XRP's price has dropped back to around $3. To reach $4 before 2026, XRP needs to increase by at least 33%. Is this feasible?

1. 'Where Bitcoin Goes, XRP Follows'

The history of the cryptocurrency market shows: if Bitcoin (BTC) rises, most altcoins – including XRP – will also rise. Currently, Bitcoin is struggling to maintain a price level of $120,000, although many Wall Street experts still believe BTC will reach $200,000 by the end of this year.

Some notable forecasts:

  • Bernstein: repeatedly affirms the target of $200,000.

  • Standard Chartered: also maintains the forecast of $200,000.

  • Citigroup (NYSE: C): predicts $199,000.

If Bitcoin rises from the current level of $114,000 to $200,000 (an increase of ~75%), then XRP only needs to rise 33% to reach $4 – a relatively feasible target.

According to data from DeFiLlama, the correlation between XRP and Bitcoin is currently:

  • 1 year: 0.88

  • 1 month: 0.86

This means that both in the short term and long term, XRP's price volatility is closely tied to Bitcoin's trend.

2. Seeking New Momentum For XRP

In recent years, the XRP investor community has continuously hoped for new 'catalysts' to drive the price higher:

  • The US President supports digital currency

  • SEC withdraws lawsuit against Ripple

  • The possibility of XRP being added to the US Government's strategic reserves

  • Rumors about a spot ETF for XRP

These factors have been partly reflected in the price, helping XRP rise from $0.50 (November 2024) to about $3 currently.

Currently, a new catalyst is gaining attention: XRP becoming a treasury reserve asset. Some companies are transitioning their model to a 'cryptocurrency treasury company' similar to MicroStrategy (MSTR) with Bitcoin. If Ripple implements this strategy on a large scale, the new demand from companies could push XRP's price up.

3. Predictions From The Derivatives Market And Financial Institutions

According to market predictions from Kalshi:

  • 42% chance XRP reaches $4 before 2026.

  • 32% chance reaches $5 before 2026.

This forecast is quite close to Standard Chartered's assessment, which believes XRP could reach $5.50 this year.

4. Challenges: Impact From US Trade Policies

A recent big surprise is the new tariff policy by President Donald Trump, effective from August 1. This has put strong selling pressure on the cryptocurrency market, including XRP. As the economic outlook in the US remains uncertain, speculative capital may continue to be cautious.

5. Conclusion: Should We Invest in XRP Now?

If Bitcoin breaks into a new high price range, the likelihood of XRP reaching $4 will significantly increase thanks to a high correlation. However, in the short term, the impact from trade policies and the absence of a sufficiently strong catalyst could slow XRP's upward momentum.

For risk-seeking investors, XRP remains a potential opportunity if they expect Bitcoin to enter a new bullish cycle. But for cautious investors, monitoring Bitcoin's movements and the economic situation in the US before 'putting money down' is essential.