Global markets are recovering, but cautiously — stock indices are rising, bonds are pausing
After the drop on Friday due to weak U.S. employment data, stock markets recovered led by technology and small caps (Nasdaq, Russell 2000). Oil prices increased, but treasury yields remain on a downward trend — investors remain cautious.
The day after weak employment data, the market recovered. Expectations of a Fed rate cut in September exceed 85%, although the dollar partially regained positions. The backdrop for stock growth is dimmed by political interventionism.
Strong stock recovery — Dow +1.3%, Nasdaq +2%
On the evening market of August 4, all key U.S. indices significantly recovered: Dow +585 pts, Nasdaq +2%, S&P +1.5%. The tech sector and small-cap stocks led the way. Reasons for the growth include a sell-off the day before, aggressive M&A deals, and expectations of market concessions from the Fed.
Palantir shares +4% after an optimistic quarterly report; Vertex -14% due to halting a new drug; Hims & Hers -12% due to weak income; Tesla +2.2% after approving a stock package for Elon Musk; W +13% thanks to unexpected profits.
Crypto exchange Bullish is preparing for an IPO with a valuation of $4.2 billion
Cryptocurrency exchange Bullish, linked to Peter Thiel, aims to raise up to $629 million in an IPO, being valued at $4.23 billion. This is the second public offering attempt after the delay in 2022. The attempt reflects optimism about the regulatory climate.
Retail investor activity declined in July
Axios' evening report shows a decline in retail investor activity in July: recession expectations and uncertainty regarding tariffs led to a restriction of risky operations. This may negatively impact small caps in August, even if the markets remain stable.
This caution may lead to a decrease in small-cap participation in August, potentially reducing short-term volatility but weakening support trends for growth.
Trump threatens India again with tariffs over the purchase of Russian oil
On August 4, Trump stated on Truth Social that India, by buying Russian oil, is trading at Ukraine's expense, and warned of significant tariff increases on Indian goods. This is already the second such statement in a few days, and the first (25%) has yet to be realized. Trump's Silicon Valley strategy is to combine trade and geopolitical policy.
In New Delhi, they declare the protection of national interests.
U.S. tariff pressure against India may benefit China — a new reason for New Delhi to draw closer to Beijing. Bloomberg predicts — geopolitical alliances in Asia may rethink economic flows.
China will strengthen funding for priority sectors — chips, materials
China released new guidelines for banks to support the production of integrated circuits and advanced materials in the medium and long term. The goal is economic renewal and reducing excessive competition.
Oil is stable after OPEC's production increase and weak demand
OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day, which weakened oil prices despite concerns about global demand. The market is reacting to a balance between supply growth and demand decline.
Burgers and steaks are getting more expensive due to climate impact
Reasons include a crisis in livestock farming, rising production costs, and environmental regulations: methane from livestock falls under ESG restrictions, complicating business. This raises prices in fast-food chains, restaurants, and grocery networks in the USA and EU.
Former President of Brazil Jair Bolsonaro has been arrested. Political tension between Brazil and the USA is rising
Former President of Brazil Jair Bolsonaro is under house arrest before a court for allegedly attempting to undermine democracy. This decision has triggered a new phase of tension with the USA: Trump calls it a "witch hunt," and the USA threatened sanctions.
Fifth anniversary of the Beirut explosion: justice still not achieved
Hundreds of Lebanese gathered solemnly by the shores of Beirut on Monday to commemorate the five-year anniversary of the catastrophic explosion in the port in 2020, when over 200 people died as a result of one of the largest non-nuclear explosions in history.
The explosion devastated large areas of Beirut, leaving tens of thousands of people homeless.
It is believed that the explosion occurred as a result of a fire at a warehouse on the evening of August 4, 2020, which detonated hundreds of tons of ammonium nitrate.
Lebanese officials then promised that the investigation into the causes of the explosion would be completed within five days.
But years of political interference have stalled the investigation, as court officials and ministers at the time constantly filed legal complaints against the investigating judges, effectively paralyzing the inquiry.
AI will not replace physical labor workers — the importance of specialized professions is increasing
In the evening, Axios highlighted the phenomenon of "blue-collar revenge" — when working professions (plumbers, welders, bricklayers) become economically indispensable. Although AI automates many tasks, critical jobs require skills that AI cannot replace. This dynamic radically changes the labor market.
Russian missile strike in Sumy region: two killed, dozens injured
On the morning of August 5, the civilian town of Pishchansk in the Sumy region was directly hit by a missile strike. As a result of the attack, two people died, and several others were injured to varying degrees. Iskander-M type missiles damaged residential buildings and communal infrastructure, and fires broke out in some neighborhoods. Local emergency services continue to evacuate civilians and eliminate the consequences of the strike. The head of the region stated that this is one of the most serious strikes in recent weeks and called on the international community to increase support for the territories.
Massive UAV attack on Lozova — one person died, 10 injured
On the night of August 4-5, the city of Lozova in the Kharkiv region experienced the most massive drone attack — about 46 UAVs were recorded. As a result of the strikes in the area of the railway station, critically important infrastructure was destroyed: bus and train traffic stopped, and adjacent territories were damaged. One man died — a locomotive engineer who was caught in the strike. Ten people, including two children, were injured of varying degrees of severity. Rescuers continue to eliminate the consequences, providing medical assistance to the victims and evacuating the population from the affected area.
