An independent market analyst specializing in monitoring on-chain order flow data indicates that South Korea's Upbit exchange may currently have a significant influence on the spot price of XRP, the fifth largest cryptocurrency in the world by market capitalization. In a series of posts on X, the trader known as 'Dom' (@traderview2) published a chart of the cumulative volume delta (CVD) across eight exchanges, showing that selling pressure in South Korea is easing just as the token hits a local bottom.
Does Upbit have control over the price of XRP?
"South Korea's Upbit exchange may actually control the price of XRP more than we think. As soon as they stopped selling pressure, the price hit the bottom, even though Binance continued to sell," Dom wrote, adding that the market has been 'slowly climbing since then, with the possibility of a TWAP on Coinbase (nearly $15 million XRP accumulated since then)."
The 48-hour chart, including the days August 2-4, shows net buying and selling volume in the markets of Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, OKX, Kraken, Bitstamp, and Upbit compared to the average spot price of XRP. While Binance's CVD line (in green) continues to decline - signaling ongoing net selling pressure - Upbit's purple line is flat after a significant drop of around 35 million XRP. This shift corresponds with the reversal of the gray price line, suggesting that the weakening supply from South Korea may have removed the largest obstacle even as selling pressure on Binance continues.
Dom's argument is not new. Since April, he has repeatedly warned about what he calls the 'massive' flow on XRP/KRW at Upbit. On May 6, he noted that -220 million XRP had been sold net since April 11, equivalent to over $500 million at the time. On August 2, he stated that Upbit had sold a net of 40 million XRP in 24 hours, more than 'all other exchanges combined'. Previous snapshots on April 6 and 16 recorded net sales of 50 million and 30 million XRP respectively, with sell orders accounting for over half of the total.
These numbers are significant because Upbit has developed into one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges in the world. Last month, this Seoul-based platform handled trading volumes of up to $110.2 billion - accounting for 6.4% of total global trading volume - ranking fourth after Binance, Bitget, and Bybit. In its own order book, XRP often outperforms Bitcoin: Data from CoinMarketCap shows that the XRP/KRW pair accounts for 24% of Upbit's total 24-hour trading volume (followed by ETH with 14.1% and BTC with 6.3%), equivalent to $444 million.
Although the data cannot prove a causal relationship, this pattern highlights what some liquidity providers have observed since 2023: regional exchanges can dominate the flow of individual assets even when their market share in total cryptocurrency activity appears modest. The enthusiasm of South Korean retail investors for XRP was nurtured during the 2017 bull cycle and continues to pour a large amount into the KRW market in this cycle. When that capital flow reverses - as Dom's dashboard shows - global prices seem to take notice as well.