On the day of my third liquidation, I tore the book on the theory of entanglement and threw it in the trash. K-lines, MACD, wave theories... I studied for three years, and my account went from 50,000 U down to 1700U, staring at the screen at three in the morning, suddenly realizing: those fancy indicators might just be used to trick 'smart people' like me.
My account is now 142,000 U, relying on three 'foolproof methods': only chasing new high breakouts, always using 20% positions, and going to cash when I don't understand. The technical folks laugh at me for 'not understanding the market,' but they don't know that I now make more by trading twice a week than they do by staring at the market every day — the harsh truth in the crypto world is: the more complex the analysis, the more ridiculous the mistakes; when it gets simple to the extreme, you can touch the money.
First phase: 1700U → 12,000 U (21 days) — using the 'breakout hunting method' to avoid 80% of the traps.
The first thing I did after tearing up the book was to turn off all indicators and only keep one K-line and the trading volume. While others studied divergences and golden crosses, I waited for one signal: the price breaks above the recent 10-day high, and the volume doubles.
How to judge a 'true breakout'? Just look for two fool signals:
① Run with volume when breaking out; those without volume are scammers.
With a capital of 1700U, I only make two types of breakouts:
The price rises to a level it hasn't reached in the last 10 days (for example, BTC rises from 102,000 to 103,000).
At the moment of the breakout, the trading volume is more than double that of the previous day (for example, if the normal trading volume is 100 million U, it suddenly becomes 200 million U during the breakout).
First trade testing ETH: On the day it broke through $2000, the trading volume surged to three times normal. I entered with a 20% position (340U), and in three days it rose to 2200U, earning 68U. This is even steadier than the half-day indicators I used to calculate.
② If there's a false breakout, accept it and run at a 5% loss.
Previously, I encountered three false breakouts, like SOL rising to a new high of 120 USD, which turned out to be a trap. I followed the rules and cut losses at 5% (17U). In total, I lost 51U, leaving my account at 1649U — in the past, I would have held until liquidation, but now I understand: false breakouts are not traps; holding onto losing trades is.
Once a technical friend laughed at me: 'Breakouts are the easiest to trick, your method will lose everything sooner or later.' But he didn't know that I avoided 9 oscillation traps with this trick, while he calculated indicators every day and stopped out 5 times in a week, leaving his account 300U less than mine.
Second phase: 12,000 → 58,000 U (45 days) — 20% position 'snowballing', slow is fast.
When my account reached 12,000 U, I got cocky and wanted to increase my position, but when I tried a 30% position, I lost 1800 U in one trade. After that painful lesson, I welded the rules to my account: always use a 20% position, use profits to add to positions, and never touch the initial capital of 1700U.
This trick allows profits to grow larger while risks become smaller:
① Capital 'frozen into ice blocks', only using profits to trade.
Transfer the 1700U capital into a cold wallet, leaving the remaining profit as 'bullets'. For example, in 12,000 U, 1700U is frozen, and 10,300 U is available for use, with each trade using 20% (2060U). Even if I lose everything, the capital is still there, and I can start again.
What I'm most proud of is 'profit isolation': every time I earn 10,000 U, I freeze 5000U into a cold wallet. In 45 days, I froze 23,000 U, leaving 35,000 U for operations, equivalent to 'playing with market money, earning is mine, losing doesn't hurt.'
② Adding positions is like 'adding firewood', only add one piece at a time.
Don't chase after a breakout; wait for a retracement back to the breakout level before adding to the position. For example, when BTC broke 45,000, I added half of the 20% position (1030U) when it retraced to 45,000. This trick allowed me to earn an additional 30% on ETH — those who went all in at the breakout panicked during the retracement.
Once after SOL broke out and retraced, a technical person shouted 'the support level has arrived', but I followed the rules and waited for it to return to the breakout line before adding positions, which helped me avoid a false support and lose only 800 U. The advantage of being a 'fool' is: no guessing support and resistance, just waiting for the market to prove itself.
③ Stop after two trades a week; overtrading will lead to losses.
I used to open 5 trades a day, but now I force myself to only make a maximum of 2 trades a week. Even if I miss an opportunity, I don't chase; for example, last week when BTC broke 50,000, I had already made 2 trades and firmly resisted entering the market. Later, when BTC retraced, those who were greedy got trapped again.
'I used to think missing out was a loss, now I understand, there are more traps in the crypto world than opportunities; avoiding traps is profit.' In 45 days, I spent more days with no position than trading, but profit was five times what I had before.
Third phase: 58,000 → 142,000 U (30 days) — only do 'trends you understand', lie down when you don't.
The last 30 days of explosion relied not on suddenly becoming smart, but on learning to 'admit defeat': only doing breakouts in an uptrend, resolutely not touching downtrends, and sleeping when the market is sideways.
How to judge 'understanding'? Just look at a fool's standard:
① Only act when the 5-day line is 'pointing up', lie down when it's pointing down.
Open the K-line; if the 5-day line slopes down like a slide, decisively don’t trade; if it moves up like stairs, then chase the breakout. In 30 days, I only traded 4 coins (BTC, ETH, SOL, ADA), each meeting the criteria of '5-day line pointing up + breaking new highs', with total profits of 84,000 U.
A technical friend once told me: 'Your method has only a 60% win rate, that's too low.' But he didn't realize: I take 10% profit and run, cut losses at 5%, a 60% win rate is enough to let profits snowball — while he has an 80% win rate, but he holds onto losing trades and doesn't make enough to cover his losses.
② Taking profits is like 'picking apples'; pick them when they're ripe, regardless of size.
I don't set target prices for my trades; after a breakout, I take whatever it rises to, sell half at 10% profit, and clear out at 20% profit. That trade in ETH made 25%, and according to the rules, I cleared out; later it indeed retraced, and my total profit was 5% more than those who waited for the highest point.
'I used to always want to eat the biggest apple, but ended up either falling down or getting bitten by bugs.' Now, no matter how much it rises, I pick it when the time comes, and my account is as steady as climbing stairs.
③ Don't take money you don't understand, even if it's presented to you.
Once, when a meme coin suddenly surged, everyone in the group was shouting 'hundredfold coin'. I opened the K-line and saw the 5-day line was crooked, and the volume fluctuated wildly — not understanding, I resolutely didn't touch it. Three days later, that coin dropped by 90%, and those who chased it lost badly.
This is the core of the 'fool method': admitting my own foolishness and only earning money within my ability circle. The crypto world is not short of opportunities, but lacks the courage to admit 'I can't earn this money.'
From 1700U to 140,000U, the three life-saving tables of the 'fool method.'
Now I’ve written the operations into a 'fool manual'; the three fans following along have quadrupled their investments at the slowest pace:
Now the technical folks aren't laughing at me; a friend involved in quantitative trading came and asked, 'Can your method be written into a program?' I told him: 'No need to write, just three sentences — buy when breaking new highs, use 20% position, if you don't understand, just lie down.'
People in the background keep asking: 'Can 1700U really turn around?' My answer is: first ask yourself if you can resist looking at indicators for 3 days, if you can cut losses at 5%, if you can only make 2 trades a week — if you've done these, 1700U is just the starting point.
It's better for a team to identify key points in advance than for one person to stare at the K-line guessing support levels; on the edge of liquidation, it's better to have someone say 'let's close half of the position' than to grit your teeth and hold on. The struggle of going solo doesn't need to become a habit. We explore direction, we control risk, you just need to follow the rhythm. I'm always here, waiting for you to set sail together.
If your execution is not strong, you might as well pay attention to @bit多多 , learn to operate with Duoduo. You'll find: the most profitable methods in the crypto world are often simple enough to be looked down upon by 'smart people.' I should have realized the day I tore up the book that complex analysis is not a weapon, but a shackle — and the key to unlock the shackle lies in 'being a bit silly, a bit foolish, and doing a bit less.'
