On August 3, Elon Musk asked the AI Grok about the potential for quantum computers to break the SHA-256 algorithm – a key security foundation of the Bitcoin network. This question arose after Musk read an article related to IBM's progress in quantum computing.
According to Grok's response, based on assessments from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), IBM, and expert surveys for the year 2025, the probability that quantum computers can break Bitcoin's SHA-256 algorithm is almost 0 in the next 5 years. Even by 2035, this probability is predicted to remain below 10%.
The reason is that in order to break SHA-256, quantum computing systems need millions of error-correcting qubits. Meanwhile, current systems have only achieved around 1,000 noisy qubits, which are not sufficient to perform complex tasks such as breaking Bitcoin's encryption algorithm.
