·The current Bitcoin market presents a clear range-bound oscillation pattern,
Both the technical analysis and external environment have not provided clear trend-driving signals. The technical analysis shows the appearance of a Evening Star pattern, suggesting a potential bearish reversal, but the extreme contraction in trading volume has created a divergence between price and volume, weakening the reliability of the signal. Additionally, the price is currently positioned between a strong support level (111850) and a medium-strength resistance level (115000), with market sentiment balanced and volatility normal, further reinforcing the characteristics of range-bound oscillation. In terms of the external environment, the market sentiment indicator (Fear & Greed Index) shows neutrality, with limited macro pressures and no major event risks recently. The news is characterized by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with outflows from the ETF market exerting some pressure, but positive news regarding Web3 and blockchain technology applications providing support. This neutral characteristic of the external environment resonates with the technical analysis, further confirming that the market is unlikely to break out of the range-bound oscillation pattern in the short term.
The Evening Star pattern is evident, indicating that the market may experience a bearish reversal, with a high signal strength. Prices are rising, but the extreme contraction in trading volume indicates insufficient upward momentum, necessitating caution against false breakout risks.
The price is positioned between support and resistance, with the nearest support level at 111850 (previous low, high intensity) and the resistance level at 115000 (moving average resistance, medium intensity), with market sentiment balanced and volatility normal.
High sell strategy
Bitcoin 115500-114500 range, target 113500, if it breaks, watch 112.900
Ethereum 3740-3680 range, target 3580-3530
