U.S. stocks dropped and then surged; after two days of falling, they quickly rallied. Yesterday, market sentiment improved, and the three major indices recovered the losses from last Friday, mainly due to Trump's increasing influence on Federal Reserve personnel, with the market betting on his policies driving interest rate cuts. U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the ten-year Treasury yield dropping below 4.2%, reflecting optimism about future monetary easing.
In the past 24 hours, 100,770 people across the network have been liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $240 million. Long liquidations amounted to $95.9032 million, and short liquidations totaled $144 million.
Trend trading, don’t be greedy with both long and short in a one-sided market. Not following the market is a certain death; licking blood on the blade is easy to get hurt. A negative funding rate only indicates that there are more short positions in the contract; it does not mean it won't rise.
To begin with: This week, due to the aftermath of the major non-farm payroll data, the market generally predicts that the probability of subsequent interest rate cuts will rise above 80%. However, opinions from 'experts' may reverse at any moment. It is advised to control positions and seize opportunities to accumulate zero-cost chips (i.e., retain profits after a wave and set a breakeven stop loss).
In the next 3 months, there will be at most 2-4 major opportunities for gradual layout of spot positions. If they appear, be bold in entering—there may only be 1 opportunity per month, at most 2.
Reviewing yesterday's market
Last night, BTC oscillated narrowly in the range of 104,000-115,500, still having the potential to attack 116,411. ETH rebounded stronger, surging to 3725, and after consolidating for 3 hours in the early morning, it slightly fell back to 3690. Before breaking through key levels, one can short on the first touch and must quickly reduce positions before and after the morning candlestick closes to lock in stop losses, without hesitation.
BTC Market Analysis
This morning at 7 AM, Bitcoin experienced another drop, sliding from 115,686 to around 114,200, which aligns with expectations.
Key focus for today:
Around 115,200: the top of the lower box, if it pulls back to this area, can continue to position short.
Stop loss: If it breaks through and stabilizes at 116,000, stop loss immediately.
Short-term take profit: 114,000
Medium to long-term take profit: 113,300 → 112,000
The overall approach remains focused on high shorts, waiting for pullback signals, and ambushing on the highs.
ETH Market Analysis
Ethereum also began to decline at 7 AM today, dropping from 3,735 to around 3,650. Unlike Bitcoin's stability, Ethereum's fluctuations are noticeably larger; it rises sharply and falls rapidly, making it more challenging to operate.
Key focus for today: 3720–3735 area: can lightly position short.
Stop loss: Breakthrough and stabilize at 3760, stop loss immediately.
First take profit: 3,610, second take profit: 3,550
Overall, it is still advised to focus on high shorts, strictly taking profits and stop losses to avoid unnecessary losses caused by large fluctuations.
Altcoin
The proportion of BTC is declining, ETH and altcoins will rise. Altcoins follow ETH, with ETH rising by 4%. Altcoins that rise less than 4% are not worth holding. For future shorting, we need to wait for exhaustion signals; I will notify everyone in the internal group in a timely manner. It is essential to proceed steadily, take profits in batches, and keep some positions.
HAEDAI
Yesterday, HAEDAI publicly opened long positions, achieving a 126% profit which has already doubled. Be sure to take profits in batches or set a breakeven stop loss!
On-chain
These past two days have been turbulent, and I finally see some return on investment!
$LIZARD surged to a market value of 12 million overnight, and it might catch a 10-fold increase next month! Yesterday, it was more than 3 times my capital, yielding a total profit of 5-6 times, which is very satisfying. Bitcoin and Ethereum rebounded, the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September reached 94.4%, on-chain markets warmed up, and an epic market may be on the way. Brothers, be ready!
The gameplay on the BSC chain is too strange.
Previously focused on CZ and He Yi, now CZ and He Yi no longer provide angles. I have started to focus on various Binance official Twitter accounts, Four official Twitter, and even now on Giggle official Twitter. These dozen official accounts post various different things every day; before building one angle, the next one is out, creating infinite P!
The current situation is such that as long as CZ is not involved, being able to shoot out is a powerful narrative, capable of reaching hundreds of thousands, making it very difficult to play.
What is the difference between meme and narrative?
Meme is the 'gene' of culture; it generally exists in forms such as meme images, symbols, slogans, etc., characterized by humor, irony, and strong propagability.
A narrative is an 'organ' composed of memes and events (stories). It generally exists in forms such as stories, worldviews, ideologies, and values, which need meme propagation.
If a narrative does not trigger a large number of excellent memes, it is difficult to ignite popularity and sustain its spread. A meme, once it has withstood the test of time, can also grow its own narrative, such as Pepe and Doge, which both had memes before narratives.
People who are sensitive to intuition and skilled at processing fragmented information are more likely to feel memes; while those who are accustomed to integrating meanings and seeking causal logic are more likely to believe narratives.