After a sharp +7.5% move from ~$3,400 to a local high of $3,716, ETH is finally showing signs of exhaustion.
On the 1H chart, we just printed a weak red candle with a small body and a noticeable upper wick — right after a strong bullish streak. It closed at $3,674.89, rejecting partially from the $3,716 high. This price zone aligns with both key structure and Fibonacci resistance. That’s usually where smart money starts watching for rejections.
RSI is flashing overbought on both short and medium-term: RSI(6) is at 85.68 and RSI(12) at 81.04. The shorter RSI has even started curving down slightly — which often comes before a shift in momentum.
MACD still shows strong bullish energy, with DIF at 44.97 vs DEA at 33.25, but the histogram is starting to flatten out. If we get another red candle, that could be the early peak forming.
Volume also backs this up — lower than the last 2 candles and fading fast. A red volume bar just printed, right when that upper wick showed rejection. That’s classic profit-taking behavior.
Zooming out a bit — this move is happening around the 0.382 Fib level on the 4H ($3,638) and is creeping toward the 0.5 level near $3,728. On the daily chart, MACD still hasn’t confirmed a bullish crossover. So technically, this entire pump could just be a bounce within a bigger bearish structure.
Right now, it’s not a full reversal — but it is a warning. If ETH hits that $3,728–$3,785 zone and prints a strong bearish or engulfing candle, I’m definitely watching for tactical shorts.
What’s your take on this overextended ETH rally?
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