News:

Shenlong trend
Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations + EU policy = ETH short-term fluctuations, but long-term opportunities?
One, impact of news
Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations are favorable for the crypto space
If the Federal Reserve really cuts interest rates, there will be more money in the market, and some funds may flow into ETH and other cryptocurrencies, bullish in the long term.
But the short-term impact is limited, as the market is still observing and funds have not yet entered on a large scale.
Two, uncertainty of EU policy is a short-term negative
The EU will announce the details of the tariff policy at 4 PM today. If it taxes or restricts cryptocurrencies, it may trigger a wave of selling.
But if the impact is minimal, it won't be significant.
Three, capital flow
Net outflow of 640,000 ETH in 7 days indicates that large funds are withdrawing, and it may continue to fall in the short term.
However, funds from US stock ETFs may flow in the future. If the ETH spot ETF is approved, new funds will enter, and $3832 is an important target.

Four, technical aspects
Support level: 3577, if it drops below, it may fall to 3520.
Resistance level: 3734, it must break to continue rising.
Short-term fluctuations are the main focus, suitable for high selling and low buying, don't blindly chase rises or panic sell.
Five, Shenlong trading strategy
Short-term:
Buy point: Lightly buy near 3640, stop loss if it drops below 3620.
Sell point: Take profit near 3680-3697, aggressive traders can short.
Medium-term:
If it breaks 3734, you can chase the rise, target 3832.
If it drops below 3628, wait to buy near 3520.
Six, key monitoring time today
16:00 EU policy, if negative, ETH may temporarily drop.
20:30 US non-farm data, if the data is poor, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut increases, and ETH may rebound.
Shenlong summary
Short-term fluctuations, don't chase blindly! After the EU policy is finalized + non-farm data is released, the market direction will be clearer.
Key levels: 3577 (support), 3734 (resistance), follow the breakout direction!
Remember: market sentiment changes quickly, make sure to set stop losses, don't hold positions!

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