If you're banking on Bitcoin hitting new all-time highs and staying there, you might want to take a deeper look at what’s happening beneath the surface. According to John Glover, CIO at Ledn and a longtime Elliott Wave analyst, the ride to the top might still be intact for now — but it won’t last forever.
In fact, he’s calling for a potential bull market peak around $140,000 by the end of 2025, followed by a serious downturn in 2026. Let’s unpack why that matters, what Elliott Wave theory has to do with it, and what it could mean for your crypto strategy going forward.
🚀 The Road to $140K Is Still Alive
Despite some recent dips — Bitcoin pulled back nearly 4% last week, even slipping below $112,000 — Glover isn’t hitting the panic button. Instead, he believes this short-term weakness is just a classic retracement, part of a broader upward pattern that fits within the framework of Elliott Wave Theory.
In his latest update, he points out that Bitcoin is currently finishing wave (iii) within a larger wave 5 move. Translation: we’re still in a bull cycle, and a rally to $135,000–$140,000 is likely before the end of this year.
“The summer slowdown is expected,” Glover wrote. “But the current structure still points toward that $140K target, completing the wave sequence as forecasted.”
That said, he warns this peak could also mark the end of the party.
📉 But 2026 Could Bring a Cold Winter
Once that wave 5 is completed, the Elliott Wave model suggests we’ll likely enter a deeper, more sustained correction — potentially a full-on bear market. And that downturn, Glover believes, will start to unfold in 2026.
Interestingly, this goes against the grain of the dominant narrative we often hear in the media: that institutional adoption, Bitcoin ETFs, and mainstream interest have broken the old four-year halving cycle, meaning we’re entering a new era of permanent uptrends.
Glover doesn’t buy it. He thinks the cyclical nature of markets — especially driven by human psychology — still applies. In his words, expect the bulls to get loud and hopeful at $140K, predicting prices of $250K or more... but he’s betting on a reversal.
🧠 Wait, What Is the Elliott Wave Theory?
For those unfamiliar, the Elliott Wave Theory was developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott back in the 1930s. It’s a market forecasting method that suggests prices move in repeating wave patterns, driven by crowd psychology.
Here’s the basic breakdown:
A full cycle has 5 waves in the direction of the trend (3 up, 2 corrective).
That’s followed by a 3-wave corrective move in the opposite direction.
These waves can occur at all timeframes — from hourly to multi-year — like fractals.
According to Glover’s current wave map:
We’re wrapping up wave (iii) soon — possibly around $130K in the next few weeks.
That’s followed by a corrective wave (iv), likely dragging BTC back to around $110K in September.
Finally, wave (v) pushes us to the peak: $140K-ish.
After that, the tide turns.
🧭 What Should Crypto Investors Do?
This isn’t investment advice, but here’s what smart traders and long-term holders should be thinking about:
Don’t assume the top is already in — there could still be room for upside in late 2025.
Prepare exit or hedge strategies — especially if you’re heavily exposed near the projected top.
Stay emotionally neutral — markets move in cycles, and the next bear may just be a reset, not a collapse.
Zoom out — Elliott Wave theory isn’t perfect, but it’s a useful lens for thinking about the structure of bull and bear phases.
🟡 Final Thought: Don't Let Euphoria Cloud Your Judgement
It’s easy to get caught up in the hype when Bitcoin is climbing. Every cycle brings bold predictions — remember the “$1 million BTC by 2022” calls? Glover’s analysis reminds us to stay grounded, trust the charts, and be ready for what comes after the high.
Because in crypto, the real game isn’t just in knowing when to enter — it’s knowing when to exit.
👉 What’s your plan if Bitcoin hits $140K? Are you riding the wave or trimming your exposure?
Let’s talk in the comments.