To know what comes next, you need to understand the catalysts. And you'll recall they fall into two buckets. Macro catalysts and crypto catalysts. Now, you can think of macro catalysts as being the fuel and crypto catalysts as being the spark that lights the fire. Macro conditions need to be bullish for crypto to rally. And you can think of bullish macro conditions as being a period where bullish macro catalysts are happening on a consistent basis. If macro conditions are bearish, then no number of crypto catalysts will trigger a rally. The same way that no number of sparks will cause a fire if there's no consistent supply of fuel.
And yes, bearish macro conditions earlier this year are essentially the reason why bullish crypto catalysts like the announcement of a Bitcoin strategic reserve had next to no effect. There was a constant stream of bearish macro news. Now, if you're not sure whether a macro catalyst is the reason why the crypto market is crashing, then look at what stocks are doing. If stocks are also crashing, then it's probably because of a bearish macro catalyst. If only crypto is crashing, then it's probably because of a bearish crypto catalyst, something specific to crypto.
This will give you a sense of where to look if you're not sure why crypto is crashing. Anyways, as a rule of thumb, bullish macro catalysts are anything that suggests that there's going to be an increase in liquidity. In plain English, bullish macro catalysts are any announcements that suggest that governments, central banks, or other large institutions will start printing or spending lots of money. That's because asset prices are primarily influenced by changes in global liquidity rather than their fundamentals.
And yes, this is precisely why so many companies trade at such ridiculous multiples. When new money is created, this money eventually finds its way into assets. And because the markets are forward-looking, investors often price in this future increase in liquidity as soon as it's announced.