The S&P500 index —the global benchmark for financial markets— has just completed 63 days above its 20-day moving average, a technical pattern that has only occurred five times in history since 1950.
👉 The last time was on July 24, 2025, and every time this pattern appeared in the past… returns were POSITIVE.
🔍 What does this pattern mean?
Remaining above the 20-day average for 63 consecutive days indicates an unusual trend strength.
Historically, this behavior anticipated:
📌 +1.5% average return per month
📌 +3.3% over three months
📌 ¡+9.2% over 12 months!
This pattern suggests that the bull market could still have fuel to keep going. But not everything is so clear...
⚠️ August and September: the “trap months”
Although the rally has solid foundations, the next two months could complicate the outlook:
📉 In the last 15 years, August and September have been the worst months for the S&P500
📉 On average, both months have shown negative returns
📉 Adding to that, we are in a post-electoral year with a president in their second term, there has never been a positive August in this context since 1957 (almost 70 years ago!)
📊 Another historical signal reinforces optimism
On April 24, the index recorded three consecutive increases greater than 1.5%. And what happened in the 5 previous cases with that same pattern?
✅ In 100% of cases, the S&P500 rose in the following 12 months
📈 The average return was +20.4%
🧠 What can a crypto investor do with this information?
Although it may seem that these signals only apply to the traditional market, the truth is that:
🪙 The behavior of the S&P500 directly influences sentiment in the crypto market
🔗 Historically, Bitcoin and Ethereum have moved in sync with the S&P500 when there is a sustained rally
📉 But they have also suffered when traditional markets face volatile months (such as August and September tend to be)
🎯 Conclusion:
✅ The rally is strong, the technical pattern is real, and historical precedents are encouraging.
⚠️ But August and September require caution and risk management, especially in post-electoral environments.
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