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โThe U.S. dollar is facing renewed pressure after a turbulent Friday, when weak jobs data and political turmoil rattled global markets.
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โ๐ Jobs Miss + Trump Shakeup = Rate Cut Bets Soar
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โJuly's nonfarm payroll numbers came in weaker than expected, with massive downward revisions of 258,000 #jobs for the prior two months. The surprise data triggered a sharp sell-off in the dollar, particularly against the yen and euro.
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โAdding fuel to the fire, President #TRUMP abruptly fired Bureau of Labor Statistics chief Erika McEntarfer, accusing her of โfakingโ the numbers. On the same day, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler resigned, giving Trump an unexpected opening to reshape central bank policy sooner than anticipated.
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โโThe report itself wasnโt weak on the surface but the revisions were a big deal,โ said Danske Bank FX strategist Mohamad Al-Saraf.
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โ๐ Market Fallout
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โUSD/JPY plunged over 3 yen on Friday, now steady at 147.47
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โEUR/USD trades at 1.1584, little changed after a 1.5% Friday surge
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โDXY index fell over 1.3%, stabilizing at 98.70
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โGBP/USD climbed to 1.3310
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โThe Swiss franc weakened sharply, after Trump hit Switzerland with unexpectedly high tariffs as part of his broader trade realignment.
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โ๐ Yields Drop as Fed Cut Odds Hit 90%+
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โMarkets are now pricing in a 90% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, with traders betting on up to two or even three cuts by year-end.
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โ2-year Treasury yield: Dropped to 3.659%, a 3-month low
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โ10-year yield: Hovering around 4.23%
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โโMarkets moved quickly equities, the dollar, and bond yields all sank,โ noted Tony Sycamore of IG.
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โ๐ Whatโs Next?
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โTrump is expected to announce a new BLS head and Fed nominee within days moves that could influence rate policy heading into the election season.
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โMeanwhile, Switzerland is holding emergency talks, hinting at possible negotiations with the U.S. to reverse tariff pressure.
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โ๐ง Takeaway
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โMarkets are bracing for a potential policy pivot at the Fed, while political moves in Washington add another layer of uncertainty.
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โIf a rate cut arrives in September, expect further dollar softness, bond strength, and volatility across FX pairs especially USD/JPY, EUR/USD, and USD/CHF.
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โRate cuts are now necessary from FED
#BinanceHODLerTOWNS #BTCReserveStrategy #MarketRebound
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