① Multi-cycle 'Sentiment thermometer' 🔍
4H ↗ 70 %: Target $115-116 k, support $112 k
1D 🔄 60 %: First attack $117-118 k, highs may encounter resistance at $120 k
3D 📈 55 %: If it breaks $120 k, or reaches $122-125 k; failure may pull back to $112-115 k
7D 🪃 60 %: May first test $108-110 k for a washout, then return to $120-125 k
30D 🚀 65 %: Holding $105-110 k is expected to push to $130 k (optimistically looking at $135-141 k)
Key levels: Support at $112 k / $110 k; Resistance at $118 k / $125 k
② Why am I biased towards more? 🧩
Technical aspect
MACD green bars shorten, bearish momentum weakens; if a golden cross occurs near the zero axis = new momentum ⚙️
RSI rebounded after falling to around 40, selling pressure has been released, emotions are recovering 😌
KDJ deeply oversold, K line turning waiting for a golden cross, funds poised to buy the dip 🎣
On-chain + funds
At the beginning of August, a whale moved 230,000 BTC for selling pressure testing, market resilience is strong; 97 % of holders are still profitable, cost basis concentrated at $117-122 k
From August 2-4, net inflows to exchanges surged ➡ panic selling nearing the end; bullish leverage has been forcibly liquidated 'reset', decline in OI benefits rebounds 📉
BVIN volatility index explodes → Extreme panic often accompanies oversold rebounds 🔔
③ Three-stage play (example of 5× leverage ⚠️)
🟢 Short-term bullish: $114 k first batch 30 % → $112 k add 40 % → $110 k supplement 30 %
🎯 Target $119 k; 🛑 Stop loss $108 k (risk -4 %, profit +6 %)
🔴 Medium-term bearish: $118 k 30 % → $122 k 40 % → $126 k 30 %
🎯 Target $110 k; 🛑 Stop loss $130 k (must be strictly enforced)
🏰 Bullish phase: $112 k → $105 k → $100 k pyramid accumulation
🎯 Target $130 k (looking at $140 k for highs); 🛑 Stop loss $95 k
Position rhythm: 30 % ➡ 40 % ➡ 30 %, dynamically move stop loss up, do not go all in.
④ Risk control memo 📜
Bollinger lower band + basis changes = precursor to a trend change — act when there is volume.
OI & fees if there is another sharp rise, prevent 'long killing long'; if it turns negative, beware of a short squeeze ⚔️
Macroeconomic alerts: Federal Reserve statements / ETF flows / large on-chain transfers.
🤔 What's your script? Let's talk in the comments~
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