Bitcoin may be stuck in a precarious state until October, according to cryptocurrency analyst Josh Olszewicz, who provided a serious assessment of the current market context in an analysis video on August 3. This veteran trader described Bitcoin's technical factors and seasonal context as fundamentally unappealing, while warning that "there is nothing to do" until a more attractive risk-reward structure appears - which may not be until Q4.
Bitcoin Bulls Pause
Olszewicz began by mentioning the tightening of the Bollinger Band phenomenon last week, a technical pattern that often precedes significant volatility. This tightening has turned bearish after a combination of weak U.S. employment data, negative ETF capital flows, and escalating geopolitical tensions — including reports of U.S. nuclear submarine activity near Russia. "The market certainly doesn't like that," he remarked.
ETF cash flow data plays a crucial role in his outlook. While Ethereum recently saw a resurgence in ETF capital inflow — contributing to one of the strongest Julys ever — Bitcoin's cash flow has turned negative. "If there is cash flow, then it is what can save us in these two gloomy months," he said, referring to August and September. However, the current trajectory shows little chance of reversal. "The decision tree has expanded much more after the collapse," he explained. "Because in the next two months, overall it will be garbage. That is its nature."
Olszewicz emphasized the seasonal weakness of Q3 for both stocks and cryptocurrencies, particularly noting that historically, August and September are quiet months. "Wake me up when September ends," he joked, stressing that traders should not expect much from the market until October - a month often associated with strong performance. "You don't want to miss October, even if October is down 80%. This is a matter of probability."
Technically, Olszewicz noted that Bitcoin remains in a vulnerable zone after stalling around the annual price of $122,000. "Despite this great chart pattern, we are still stuck at $122,000," he said. "If it breaks above $122,000, the next threshold will be $150,000 — that is the mentality, it is a carefully calculated move, and it is the annual pivot price."
However, a more urgent concern lies in the potential emergence of a bearish TK cross on the Ichimoku Cloud, which would trigger a sell signal in his system. "That's the Pavlovian response. A bearish TK cross, you have to close your long position," he bluntly stated. "If we go back to the 100 mark at this point, there will be a lot of people talking about the end of the cycle."
The Commitments of Traders (COT) data from CME further adds to the caution. "Commercial trading prices have dropped significantly," Olszewicz warned. "This is not something you want to see if you're optimistic." The data shows a sharp decline in institutional buying positions, adding another headwind for BTC prices.
However, not everything is completely lost. Olszewicz pointed out historical precedents, such as the difficult months of August and September 2023 when Bitcoin was heavily affected by the Mt. Gox distribution and the German government's sell-off. Despite the noise, Bitcoin rose in price in October after the approval of spot ETF funds and maintained above the clouds for a long time. "For many reasons, it may look like the end, but we can still get through it," he emphasized.
For traders looking to re-enter the market, he noted that the $117,000–$120,000 range is a potential area to re-enter if BTC can regain this range within the next two weeks. "The bullish speculators will hold this level for two weeks," he said. "This won't be difficult if there are buyers in the market."
But until then, he remains on the sidelines: "There is nothing to do. Right now, this place belongs to no one."
With Bitcoin in a technical holding pattern, negative cash flows, weak seasonality, and risk-averse signals from traditional markets, Olszewicz clearly stated that forcing trades in this context could be costly. What is his advice? Be patient, maintain liquidity, and watch the developments in October.
