📉 1. Technical analysis: SOL broke the 165 USD mark
🔻 Important support level breached
• 165 USD is a strong support area in recent weeks.
• This is also the 50-day EMA on the daily chart, serving as a 'defensive line' for buyers.
➤ When this support breaks:
• Prices may quickly revert to the 155–150 USD range.
• Selling pressure may increase as this is a clear breakdown.
• If it continues to weaken, the next strong support area is around 138–145 USD.
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🔎 2. Market signals behind the drop
⚠️ Selling pressure from large holders
• Some hedge funds and whale investors may be taking profits after a strong rise from June to July.
• Funding rates on derivatives exchanges have decreased or turned negative, indicating that investors are shorting or lowering their bullish expectations.
📉 The altcoin market is 'lightly dumping'
• Not only SOL, many large altcoins (AVAX, NEAR, APT) also dropped by 5–10%.
• There is a possibility that capital is temporarily withdrawing from altcoins, returning to BTC or stablecoins due to macroeconomic instability.
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🌐 3. Macroeconomic & market sentiment
🏦 Risks from U.S. economic data:
• Investors are concerned about the upcoming August CPI and the possibility that the Fed will maintain a hawkish stance.
• U.S. bond yields are rising, putting pressure on risk assets (including crypto).
😟 Sentiment index declines:
• The Fear & Greed Index for the crypto market is leaning towards neutral – concern.
• The flow of stablecoins on-chain is increasing, reflecting that investors are on the sidelines observing.
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📈 4. Should we be worried?
Not necessarily.
• SOL remains a top strong altcoin, with a vibrant DeFi, NFT, and memecoin ecosystem.
• From a long-term investment perspective, the price range of 150–155 USD may be a reasonable accumulation area if BTC holds its price.
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🧠 Action strategy
If you are holding SOL:
• Can hold if long-term expectations and capital are good.
• Consider cutting losses partially if it breaks 150 USD with large volume.
If you want to buy in:
• Wait for a reversal candle signal in the 150–155 USD range or when BTC recovers strongly.
• Should enter in parts, not all-in, as there is no confirmation of a short-term bottom.
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✅ Conclusion
SOL falling below 165 USD is a negative signal in the short term, but does not ruin the long-term uptrend if it holds above 140–145 USD. This reflects caution in the altcoin market as BTC adjusts and sentiment is unclear.