Current Price Status: Hovering at a Crossroads, Brewing a Trend Change
SOL is currently hovering around $161, up 0.95% today; it looks like a small bull, but in reality, it’s a 'standby soldier'! From the candlestick view, it resembles a hesitant warrior: above $163-$165 is a high-pressure line, and below $155-$159 is an iron bottom.
This is like being in a narrow hallway: taking a step up leads to a broad avenue, while slipping down leads to a bottomless abyss. The market is currently tightening, with sluggish trading; the entire market is waiting for the wind to come — ETF news is the key.
Bull-Bear Boundary: $163 is the Gatekeeper, $159 is the Warning Line
Let’s get straight to the point: the bullish boundary is $163, and the bearish boundary is $159. Why do I say this?
Bullish Breakthrough: If we stabilize here, it can activate the 'cup and handle' pattern in the short term, targeting $170, and even triggering a chain reaction rebound.
Why am I so confident? Institutions are quietly stocking up — on-chain data shows that LTH (Long-Term Holders) have increased their holdings by 102% in four days, and CME futures trading volume skyrocketed by 252% last month. Big players are holding cheap chips, just waiting for a breakout to net their gains. Additionally, the weekly MACD golden cross is still stable, indicating no deviation in the medium to long-term direction. If we push hard to $165 today, it’s the 'rocket launch' button.
Bear Warning: If it breaks here, the alarm sounds! Immediately look down to the strong support area at $155; if it breaks, it could slide to $147. Why is it so dangerous? Retail sentiment has collapsed — the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has dropped to 0.15, indicating that small investors are panic selling, and the selling pressure is still fermenting.
I’ve seen many of these 'retail investors crying, big players smiling' scenarios; it's easy to trigger a stampede in the short term. Moreover, with RSI=42, though not oversold, the market is still weak; if institutions don’t hold the bottom, programmed selling could lead to an avalanche.
Personal Opinion and Case: Wait for the Storm, Don’t Fumble
Buddy, I’ve been watching the crypto world for 8 years, and I’ve seen similar scenes many times! It’s just like the night before last year’s ETH ETF event; everyone thought it would crash, but the moment the news landed, it surged by 40%.
Now SOL is similar — on Friday (August 8), VanEck’s ETF will be finally approved. If this passes, it will be historical fuel. The Solana phone starts shipping today, with limited short-term stimulation, but it can heat up the ecosystem.
So don’t be fooled by the fluctuations: the area between $155-$158 is the institutional cost zone, with orders placed here, the odds are high; in the short term, breaking and stabilizing above $163 means to jump in for profit, dropping below $159 means to cut losses and avoid risks. Remember, the crypto circle mantra: when risks come, run decisively; when opportunities arise, charge boldly!
Finally, the eye of the storm is on Friday! Want to catch the first signal? Follow me, I update market analysis every day at 5 PM, providing real-time updates on ETF movements! Join my team, and let’s mine gold in the crypto world together — don’t miss the next wave of wealth from SOL! Click here to join: Follow the Convergence Homepage
