U.S. Employment Data Raises Alarm, Is Economic Recession Coming?

Today I saw the latest report from Credit Suisse analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya, stating that if U.S. non-farm employment remains below 50,000 for six consecutive months, it would be a clear signal of economic recession. Counting the days, we may have already met half of that condition...

To be honest, this data makes me uneasy. Although the market is anticipating a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, if it is forced to cut rates due to economic recession, that would not be a good thing. As the analyst said, cutting rates is not magic; it doesn't solve the fundamental problems. Even more laughable is that some people are trying to shift the blame to the Bureau of Labor Statistics; isn't that self-deception?

I checked the recent employment data, and it is indeed not very optimistic. Companies are clearly much more cautious about hiring, and several friends around me are finding it harder to get jobs than before. If this situation continues, the Federal Reserve may indeed be forced to cut rates early. But the problem is, inflation has not been fully controlled yet; will cutting rates now trigger new problems?

The most ironic thing is that Trump had previously vowed to make the U.S. economy stronger, and now the job market is struggling to hold up. The words of politicians, just take them with a grain of salt...

As an ordinary investor, I am both looking forward to the stock market rebound that a rate cut might bring and worried that the economy will really fall into recession. This contradictory mindset is probably shared by many. Currently, my strategy is to allocate more defensive assets and keep enough cash on hand; who knows what surprises the second half of the year will bring...