Arthur Hayes, co-founder of the BitMEX exchange, has just predicted that the price of Bitcoin could drop to 100,000 USD and Ethereum to 3,000 USD. He believes that pressures from the macro environment and the weakening of global credit creation are causing the market to lack supportive cash flow.
According to Hayes, major economies are currently not expanding credit quickly enough to drive nominal GDP growth – a factor that reflects the total value of goods and services at current prices, including inflation. This credit shortfall could lead to a significant correction with Bitcoin and the market.
Hayes' pessimistic forecast appeared after the U.S. prepared to pass a new tax bill in the third quarter of 2025, adding more pressure to the market. Just 24 hours after the warning, the cryptocurrency market capitalization dropped by more than 3%, to 3.76 trillion USD. Bitcoin fluctuated from nearly 114,000 USD to 112,113 USD before recovering to 114,234 USD, while Ethereum fell from 3,500 USD to 3,373 USD and then recovered to 3,500 USD. This drop resulted in over 372 million USD being liquidated, affecting 115,000 traders, with long positions accounting for about 322 million USD.
Meanwhile, Eric Trump – the son of U.S. President Donald Trump – offered a contrasting viewpoint. He advised investors to take advantage of the price drop to buy Bitcoin and Ethereum, emphasizing that this could be a rare 'bottom-fishing' opportunity. History shows that Eric Trump's previous recommendations have coincided with significant recoveries, with Bitcoin rising about 15% and Ethereum increasing up to 20% afterward.
BitMEX, the exchange co-founded by Hayes in 2014, is famous for its derivative products and high leverage of up to 100x. However, Hayes' name is also associated with legal scandals. In 2022, he pleaded guilty to violating the U.S. Bank Secrecy Act and was fined 10 million USD, along with a 6-month home confinement sentence.
Although BitMEX has diminished in influence since then, Hayes' new warning is still strongly impacting market sentiment, while Eric Trump's buy recommendation is providing hope for optimistic investors.
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According to you, which one is right?
