Federal Reserve's September Rate Cut at 89.1%! Blockchain 'Golden Pit' to Emerge, Four Types of Currencies May See Hundredfold Opportunities

CME data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is 89.1%, with expectations for a 50 basis point cut in October exceeding 60%. This 'monetary flood' may tear open a decade-long wealth gap, but the winners may not necessarily be Bitcoin.

1. Rate Cut: Capital's 'Repositioning'

Don't be misled by 'rate cut = liquidity'. History shows that after rate cuts in 2019 and 2020, Bitcoin remained sideways until QE was initiated and then surged. The logic has changed:

Institutional Arbitrage: BlackRock's BTC ETF attracted $360 million in a single week, with funds 'pumping' into the crypto market through 'borrowing low-interest dollars + buying BTC'. DeFi Under-the-Radar: DAI interest rates fell below 2%, and USDC issuance surged by $8 billion. While retail investors hesitate, market makers have already captured 35% of Bitcoin trading volume through cross-market arbitrage.

2. Four Types of Currencies May Be the Biggest Winners

1. Bitcoin: Institutional 'Non-USD Asset'

Under the debt pressure of the Trump administration, sovereign funds view BTC as a 'decadal purchasing power guarantee'. IBIT's holdings are 40% from 'long money', betting on the preservation of assets after the depreciation of the dollar's credit.

Perspective: BTC may break $130,000, but if the U.S. Treasury yield curve issues a 'recession warning' in September, the process may be tortuous.

2. Ethereum Ecosystem: DeFi 'Spread Game' Rebirth

MakerDAO: DAI interest rates cut from 3.6% to 1.8%; if dollar depreciation lowers DeFi rates, 'farmers' may restart the 'spread game' through cross-market arbitrage. Aave/Compound: Whales use ETH as collateral to borrow stablecoins to increase BTC positions; the 'dual profit' strategy after the rate cut may boost ecological trading volume.

3. Traditional Finance Entrants: ONDO, UNI

ONDO: Bringing government bonds onto the blockchain; if a stablecoin run occurs, linking with traditional credit may become a new favorite for institutions. UNI: A 'super event' for decentralized exchanges is approaching, and liquidity rewards may attract funds back during the CEX regulatory period.

3. Three Major Risks: Beware of Black Swans

Rate cut falls short of expectations: If only a 25 basis point cut occurs in September, the 62% high leverage in the crypto market may trigger a chain reaction of liquidations. Economic recession 'fake moves': If unemployment rises, BTC may fall alongside tech stocks. Regulatory crackdown: If the SEC halts leveraged ETFs or restricts stablecoins, liquidity may be instantly withdrawn.

Instead of waiting on the sidelines, why not join the K-line judge and ignite the fire! #加密市场反弹