According to analysts, Bitcoin may need to stay above $110,000 to have a chance to retest historical highs. Over the weekend, Bitcoin dropped by 5%.
Bitcoin fell from about $118,330 last Friday to $112,300 on Sunday, marking a poor start to August.
IG market analyst Tony Sycamore told Cointelegraph on Monday that Bitcoin has started to rebound to $114,800. He stated that this pullback tested and held the previous record high support of $112,000, which is a reasonable pullback target.
If risk sentiment stabilizes and Bitcoin can stay above the $112,000/$110,000 support, it could retest the record high. However, the $125,000 level above is an important resistance, and I currently do not see the momentum to break through this resistance.
However, if risk sentiment declines again in August and Bitcoin continues to fall below support levels, it may pull back toward the moving average of $99,355.
August is a bearish month for Bitcoin.
Since 2013, Bitcoin has generally shown a downward trend in August. According to Glassnode data, the asset fell by 8.6% in 2024, dropping to $59,000, which is not as severe compared to the double-digit declines in 2023 and 2022, which fell to $27,300 and $19,800 respectively.
The average drop in August is 11.4%, and if history repeats itself, Bitcoin could fall to around $105,000 this month. However, there are exceptions in bull market years.
September also performs poorly.
The last time there was an increase in August was during the 2021 bull market, when Bitcoin rose by 13.8%. If following the four-year market cycle, 2025 could also be a bull market year.
However, the outlook for September is also poor, as 8 out of the last 12 Septembers have been down months.
