There’s now an 80.3% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates at the September 17, 2025 meeting, lowering the target range from 4.25–4.50% to 4.00–4.25%.
Only 19.7% odds remain for no change, and 0% chance of a hike.
Just a week ago, markets were pricing in only a 61.9% chance of a cut.
This is a clear sign that expectations are quickly shifting in favor of monetary easing.
The market is betting big that the Fed is ready to pivot.
