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Elon Musk Elon Musk questions the probability of quantum computing breaking Bitcoin and the answer surprises

Elon Musk

Elon Musk questions the probability of quantum computing breaking Bitcoin and the answer surprises

03/08/2025 08:20 08:20

Elon Musk and Bitcoin

Elon Musk asked Grok in an IBM post about the alleged threat (Photos/X)

While interacting with an IBM post on the social network X (formerly Twitter) regarding quantum computing, Elon Musk asked on Saturday (2) for the artificial intelligence Grok to estimate the probability of Bitcoin being broken.

Thus, the AI, which belongs to the billionaire himself and interacts daily with cryptocurrency investors, searched through documents released by major companies in the sector in 2025.

“Grok estimate the probability of quantum computing breaking SHA-256,” Musk questioned.

SHA-256, or Secure Hash Algorithm 256-bit, is a cryptographic algorithm from the SHA-2 family created by the US agency, the NSA. Currently, the standard that ensures the security of the Bitcoin network is one of the most robust in the world.

Surprisingly, the answer given by Grok came in the same direction, indicating that the probability of breaking Bitcoin with quantum computing today is 0%.

“Based on 2025 assessments from NIST, IBM, and expert research, the probability of quantum computing breaking SHA-256 (through Grover's algorithm, reducing the pre-image search to ~2^128 operations) is close to 0% in the next 5 years and <10% by 2035. This requires millions of error-corrected qubits; current systems exceed ~1,000 qubits with noise. Bitcoin hashing remains secure for now,” said AI Grok in response to the world's richest man.