Elon Musk, the richest man in the world, has dispelled fears that innovation in quantum computing could decipher the SHA-256 algorithm, the cryptographic algorithm fundamental to Bitcoin mining. In a post on X, in response to IBM's advancements in quantum computing, Elon Musk asked Grok to assess the probabilities that the technology would decipher the SHA-256 cryptographic algorithm.
Grok responded to Elon Musk's question that "the Bitcoin hash remains secure for now," with a probability that quantum computing will decipher SHA-256 in the next five years close to 0%. However, Grok adds that at the current pace of innovation, the probability will increase, but will remain below 10% by 2035.
Despite the slight increase in probabilities, Grok noted that malicious actors will need millions of error-corrected qubits to compromise Bitcoin's cryptographic system. Currently, Google's and IBM's existing systems have demonstrated the early stages of error correction, and full correction is still years away. While some speculation about Google's quantum chip Willow compromising Bitcoin's security has raised concern, the consensus is that a real threat is at least 10-20 years away.
Grok based his response on the NIST 2025 article and other studies conducted by IBM. Meanwhile, IBM is eyeing a series of quantum computers for the coming years, with the most powerful being the IBM Quantum Blue Jay, equipped with 2000 logical qubits, expected by 2033.
While Elon Musk's Grok has dispelled short-term fears, Bitcoin developers are taking various proactive measures to stay ahead. To start, they are exploring cryptographic algorithms resistant to quantum technology amid a series of Bitcoin Improvement Proposals (BIP) to migrate the network from legacy systems.
Meanwhile, Ethereum is also preparing for quantum threats in the coming years. Last week, developers presented a 10-year plan for Ethereum to be resistant to quantum threats while simultaneously improving transaction speed.
Amid the debate on the quantum threat, Bitcoin is recovering after a significant market drop that brought it below $112,000 the previous day. At the time of this publication, the leading cryptocurrency is trading at $113,851, while Ethereum remains at the $3,465 mark.
