🔍 Overview
Treehouse’s native token, TREE, suffered a staggering 46% drop within just 24 hours of its debut, catching the market off guard. Despite being listed on top-tier exchanges like Binance, OKX, and Coinbase, and paired with a heavily publicised Binance airdrop, the launch failed to ignite a bullish rally. Instead, massive sell pressure, coupled with mixed technical indicators, led to a painful correction. The big question now is: Is TREE oversold—or just getting started on a longer downtrend?
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🪙 Airdrop Breakdown: Two-Phase Structure Explained
Binance announced a two-phase airdrop mechanism for TREE based on Binance Alpha Points, designed to reward engaged community members:
Phase 1 (First 18 hours):
Users with ≥233 Alpha Points could claim up to 100 TREE tokens.
Phase 2 (Final 6 hours):
Users with ≥200 Alpha Points joined a first-come, first-served pool.
If the pool wasn't fully claimed, the point threshold decreased by 15 every hour.
While the airdrop was meant to build hype and distribute tokens to active users, it inadvertently triggered mass selling as recipients rushed to realise profits, many of whom likely had no long-term commitment to the protocol.
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📉 Post-Launch Market Response
TREE’s token officially launched on July 29, 2025, and the initial reaction was brutal:
Price dropped 46% in under 24 hours, bottoming near $0.57
24-hour trading volume surged to $374.93 million, according to Santiment
Instead of price appreciation, the data indicated mounting selling pressure
This combination of high volume and negative price action is typically a bearish signal, pointing to a lack of confident buyers willing to absorb the airdrop-driven liquidity.
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📊 Technical Analysis: BBP & RSI
Two key indicators help illustrate TREE’s current technical state:
Bull Bear Power (BBP):
Indicates that sellers are clearly in control on the 15-minute chart.
A sustained negative BBP often signals momentum in favour of bears.
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
Shows TREE is rebounding from oversold territory (~30 or below).
This could suggest a short-term recovery, especially if buyers step in decisively.
🔄 Interpretation: The RSI rebound could enable a relief rally, but BBP dominance still favours bears unless a clear trend reversal occurs.
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🧠 Why the Airdrop Backfired
Typically, airdrops generate buy-side enthusiasm, but TREE’s case offers a cautionary tale. Key missteps:
Unclear token utility at launch left buyers uncertain
Lack of vesting or lockups allowed recipients to instantly dump
Many airdrop recipients were Alpha Points farmers, not long-term users
Listings on major exchanges created immediate liquidity, accelerating sell-offs
Retail speculators likely front-ran the event and exited quickly
The result? A textbook case of "buy the rumour, sell the launch"—with heavy emphasis on "sell."
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🔮 Price Scenarios: What’s Next?
🔻 Bearish Scenario
If current momentum holds and no strong buyer activity emerges:
TREE could revisit support near $0.30, based on projected volume-led continuation
Sentiment and technicals remain weak, with few incentives to hold
🚀 Bullish Scenario
If RSI-led recovery is confirmed and Treehouse communicates its value:
TREE could bounce to $0.76 as a short-term recovery target
A break above $0.85–$0.90 would confirm structural recovery
Long-term upside remains speculative without new token utility announcements
🧠 Neutral Bias: TREE is currently in price discovery mode, and next moves will likely be dictated by news flow, market sentiment, and protocol engagement.
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🏗️ Project Fundamentals
Despite the weak launch, Treehouse has strong foundational elements:
Valuation: Estimated at $400 million
Token Supply:
Total: 1 billion
Circulating: ~186.12 million (18.6%)
Remainder subject to scheduled unlocks
Future Plans Include:
Expanding “tAssets” to new base chains and L2S
Introducing derivatives like Forward Rate Agreements (FRAs)
Supporting DeFi-native and institutional use cases
These fundamentals matter—but the market may need time to catch up.
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🧭 Lessons & Strategic Takeaways
For Protocols:
Don’t overestimate airdrop loyalty—many users just want free tokens
Implement vesting or claim limits to discourage instant dumping
Clearly communicate utility and long-term vision before listing
Launch liquidity should be paired with buyer incentives, not just sell-side access
For Investors:
Always evaluate tokenomics, not just hype
Volume surges + price drops = red flags
Monitor on-chain sentiment tools like BBP and RSI before entering
Wait for consolidation and confirmation before re-entry
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✅ Final Thoughts
TREE’s launch was a textbook sell-the-news event, and its steep drop highlights the risks of unchecked airdrop mechanics. However, signs of oversold technicals and strong fundamentals leave room for a potential short-term bounce.
Still, this is not a token to chase impulsively.
🚨 Wait for confirmation. Watch volume, RSI, and whether the Treehouse team delivers on its roadmap.
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Explore More About Treehouse
🔗 https://www.treehouse.finance
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