The divergence in the ETH chart issues a warning as an on-chain metric predicts a rebound to $4,500
On-chain data for ETH predicts a rebound to $4,500, but a bearish divergence in the RSI warns of a short-term correction.
Ether
ETH
€3005
has traded just below the $4,000 resistance since December 2025, and traders are unsure if it will break above soon. Despite the difficulty in surpassing $4,000, a key target for bulls is found in the active realized price band of +1σ, which currently hovers around $4,500. The metric tracks the average cost of ETH that changes hands actively on the network.
Glassnode data indicated that this level acted as a ceiling during the March 2024 peak and the 2020-21 cycle. A sustained breakout above this line has previously triggered a rapid bullish momentum but also carries the risk of overheating and structural volatility. The momentum is also reflected in ETH futures markets. Cointelegraph reported that Ether's perpetual futures have outperformed Bitcoin in volume dominance for the first time since 2022, marking the "largest" shift in trading focus towards ETH ever recorded. Similarly, the pseudonymous trader Byzantine General recently revisited his short-term outlook, stating,
"I think I was wrong about ETH having a short-term downside. It’s too strong, refuses to print any significant correction... It looks like a 'just send it all!' moment!"
Supporting this narrative, Ether's liquidation maps reveal a dense cluster of short liquidations stacked just above $4,000. A clean move above this threshold could liquidate up to $930 million in positions, potentially driving a vertical move towards $4,500.
