HBAR in Focus: 19% Drop Tests Key Support – Is an ETF-Led Rebound Coming?
Market Rollercoaster: HBAR's Volatile Week
Hedera (HBAR) faced intense selling pressure this week, tumbling 19% to $0.22 amid broader altcoin weakness. The decline erased June's rally above $0.30, driven by:
ETF Approval Jitters: SEC review delays for Canary Capital's Hedera ETF
Macro Headwinds: Trump's tariff proposals spooked risk assets
Technical Breakdown: Lost 50-day MA ($0.25) support
*Yet HBAR remains +46% monthly – outperforming ETH (+32%) and SOL (+28%)*
The ETF Catalyst: Make-or-Break Levels
Key ETF Timeline:
Aug 12: SEC public comment period closes
Sep 5: NASDAQ decision deadline
Price Implications:
Bull Case: Approval could trigger rally toward $1.10 (3.5x from current)
Bear Case: Rejection risks drop to $0.15 (2024 low)
"This is HBAR's 'IBIT moment' – institutional flows hang in the balance."
— Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg ETF Analyst
Technical Outlook
Chart Patterns:
Symmetrical Triangle forming on weekly chart
Stochastic RSI: Oversold (14.2) – potential reversal signal
Critical Levels:
Support: $0.155 (January swing low)
Resistance: $0.517 (June high)
Fundamental Strengths
CBDC Adoption:
Australia's Project Acacia trials on Hedera
UAE central bank collaboration
Enterprise Growth:
86% Q2 revenue increase for Hedera Governing Council members
3.2M daily transactions (vs. 1.8M in Q1)
Staking Surge:
$680M TVL (up from $290M in March)
6.8% APY attracting institutional validators
Trading Strategies
For Bulls:
Accumulate between $0.20-$0.22
Stop-loss below $0.155
Target $0.35 pre-ETF decision
For Bears:
Short rallies failing at $0.25 (50-day MA)
Watch for CMF divergence (currently -0.08)
