August has started with a bang! If you've lost money on Ethereum recently, don't be too hard on yourself for your operations, as large funds are also in the same situation. The cryptocurrency market in August is turbulent: ETH whales and institutions are collectively facing unrealized losses, with staking funds fleeing crazily, leading to a total liquidation of long positions worth $920 million.#加密市场回调

Is the August curse of Ethereum reappearing? What exactly is brewing in the market? Is it a precursor to a crash, or the final shake before a bull market? Old Chen will take you deep into the analysis:

Core event analysis:



1. Massive liquidation of long positions! $920 million lost!

On August 1, the total liquidation of long positions reached $922.2 million, setting a record high since February 25. Reviewing the market trends since February 25, it experienced two months of decline and consolidation. Will history repeat itself?

Key point: Liquidations are concentrated in mainstream coins like ETH and BTC, indicating large-scale clearing of leveraged long positions and extremely fragile market sentiment.

Viewpoint: There is immense pressure for a short-term correction, but liquidations are often followed by rebounds, the key is whether it can hold the $3200 support.

2. The largest ETH holder institution, BMNR, is facing an unrealized loss of nearly $200 million!

Bitmine Immersion (BMNR) holds 625,000 ETH with an average cost of $3755, currently facing a loss of 9.25%, amounting to nearly $200 million!

Key point: Institutions are trapped but have not sold off massively, indicating continued optimism about long-term value.

Fuxiang's viewpoint: The institutional cost line (around $3750) will become a strong resistance level, and only after breaking through can a new round of increases begin.

3. A mysterious whale bought $300 million worth of ETH in 3 days and is currently facing an unrealized loss of $26 million!

A whale starting with 0xdf has been buying ETH heavily through Galaxy Digital's OTC trading, but is currently facing an unrealized loss of $26 million.

Key point: Whales are buying at lows, but the market has not yet stopped falling, indicating heavy selling pressure.

Fuxiang's viewpoint: Whales may continue to increase their positions; if ETH breaks below $3300, it may trigger larger-scale buying.

4. Staking funds are fleeing! 740,000 ETH are queued for withdrawal.

The staking withdrawal queue for Ethereum has reached 744,000 ETH (peak), valued at $1.931 billion, with a waiting time of nearly 10 days! Meanwhile, new staking is only 123,000 ETH.

Key point: A large number of stakers are choosing to take profits, putting short-term pressure on the market.

Fuxiang's viewpoint: The wave of staking withdrawals may lead to increased short-term selling pressure on ETH, but in the long run, regulatory benefits (such as ETF expectations) could attract new funds.

5. The open interest of Ethereum contracts plummeted by 11.4%, leveraged funds are withdrawing.

The total ETH contract open interest on the whole network has plunged from 15.29 million to 13.74 million, a decline of 11.4%, indicating that leveraged funds are withdrawing.

Key point: High-leverage long positions have been cleaned out, and the market has entered a low volatility phase.

Fuxiang's viewpoint: A drop in open interest usually accompanies a trend reversal; if ETH stabilizes above $3400, a rebound may be on the way.

Market forecast: Exclusive viewpoint from Fuxiang


Short-term:

ETH may test the $3200-$3300 support; if it breaks, it could plunge to $3000.

However, whales and institutions have a strong willingness to buy at lows, and a quick rebound may follow after a crash.

Mid-term:

If ETH breaks through $3750 (institutional cost line), it will initiate a new round of increases, targeting $4500.

Regulatory benefits (such as ETF approval) may become a catalyst.


Long-term:

The Ethereum ecosystem (Layer 2, DeFi) continues to develop, and ETH remains the most promising public chain asset.

During the bull market cycle, ETH is expected to hit $6000-$8000.

Operational suggestions

Short-term players: Focus on the $3200-$3300 support, if it breaks, wait and see; if it stabilizes, consider buying with a small position.

Long-term investors: Accumulate in batches at lower prices; anything below the institutional cost ($3750) is an opportunity.

High-risk preference: Focus on rebound opportunities after leveraged liquidation, but strictly set stop-losses.



Note: When the market is in panic, it is often when opportunities are brewing! ETH whales and institutions are collectively trapped, and staking funds are fleeing, but this might just be the final shakeout before a bull market. Remember, when others are fearful, I am greedy! I am Fuxiang's old Chen, focused on interpreting the news, and specifically targeting critical market points! Follow me for daily strategies to get in early.