SUI’s recent rotation, and the key setups that traders and investors need to watch:

1. 📉 Solana (SOL): Quick Slide, Bigger Threat?

SOL collapsed ~22% in August, falling from a July high of $205 to $160, fueled by fading DeFi activity, cooling TVL, and choppy meme‑coin volume. Liquidations surged around $166–178, and technical support around $150–162 is now being retested. If the $178 – 160 zone fails, bearish targets point back toward $162 and even $150 (see “maximum pain level”).

A technical breakdown from a failed ascending triangle and reversal above $190 suggests this may have been a liquidity trap—not a breakout. Open interest remains near all-time highs (~$11 billion), implying crowd speculators are vulnerable to derisking.

However, if SOL can reclaim $190–200 and keep closing above, chart fractals (similar to SEI’s post‑breakout pattern) signal a potential swing toward $244–271—but that remains conditional and unconfirmed based on current structure  .

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2. 🏗️ Sui (SUI): Quietly Leading the Pack

According to macro strategist Raoul Pal, SUI appears supported at the bottom of a descending channel near the $2–2.10 zone and is forming a longer-term triangle—implying an imminent breakout to the upside.

On-chain and volume charts confirm a rotation toward SUI: trading volume surpassed USD 2 billion on multiple days, outperforming SOL in token flow and stablecoin movement  .

Technically, clearing $4.00 opens $4.50–4.80; overtaking $5 unlocks targets as high as $10.80 within upcoming months, per Elliott Wave and triangle breakout count analyses.

3. 🔀 Can SOL Correction Flip Into Alt Breakout?

Scenario Solana (SOL) Sui (SUI) Market Narrative

1. SOL Rebound / SOL Breakout Reclaim $190–200, close above to pivot, target $244–271 Pullback to $3.20–3.50 Alt rotation fades; profit locked into SOL at high beta

2. SOL Deep Correction Drops toward $150–158, invalidating recent rally √ Holds above $2, consolidates then tests $4+ Alt season gains momentum; capital shifts into SUI

3. Sideways / Macro Front‑and‑Center Range trade between $160–190 Oscillates in $3–4 range, breakout delayed News flow (Fed, China) dictates direction; alt decomposition prioritized

Edge clues:

SOL’s bounce needs volume: >350M daily for conviction.

SUI requires close above $4.00 with breakout volume to suggest continuation toward $6+.

Broader market flows—such as CME position data, key US CPI/inflation updates—will help validate this cross-rotation narrative.

🔎 Takeaways for Traders & Investors

Momentum pulse: If BTC continues to weaken under $113K, SOL momentum likely stalls.

Alt breadth check: Confirm alt season by tracking top 50 tokens; if only SUI is performing, we're still in “cherry‑pick mode”.

Risk manager’s corner: For SOL, stay defensive below $166; for SUI, watch for breakout near $3.85–4.15 weekly close.

As always: none of this is financial advice. Always DYOR before trading.