๐ Key Indicators & Current Context
1. Price & Trend:
Current Price: $160.26 (-1.90%, 24h)
Bearish trend: Price below all major EMAs
EMA(7): $168.69
EMA(25): $172.07
EMA(99): $162.45
๐ป Critical: Price testing EMA(99) from below โ possible last support before breakdown.
2. Momentum & Volatility:
RSI(6): 25.28 โ extremely oversold (lowest since 2025).
Stoch RSI: 1.23 (MA: 0.41) โ bottoming out.
Volume: Just 461K SOL, which is 82% below MA(5) โ potential capitulation or liquidity trap.
3. Support/Resistance:
Support Levels:
$155.83 (24h low)
$148.90 (swing low)
Resistance Zones:
$162.45 (EMA99)
$165.13 (24h high)
$168.69 (EMA7)
$179.33 โ breakout zone
โ ๏ธ Major Barrier: $206.30 (macro high)
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๐ Price Prediction
โณ Short-Term (6โ24h):
๐ Bounce likely to $162.45โ$165.13 due to RSI/StochRSI oversold and volume collapse.
๐ Medium-Term (3โ7 Days):
Bullish: Close above $165 โ test $168.69 (EMA7), then $172.07.
Bearish: Break below $155.83 โ downside to $148.90 or even $137.14.
๐ฎ Long-Term Bias:
Still bearish under $162.45.
Must reclaim $165+ for trend shift.
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๐ง Trade Plan
๐ข Scenario 1: EMA(99) Reversal Play
Trigger: 15m candle close > $161.50 + RSI(6) > 30
Entry: $159โ$160
Targets:
TP1: $162.45 (+1.4%)
TP2: $165.13 (+3.0%)
TP3: $168.69
Stop Loss: $155.50
โ Confluence: Oversold indicators + volume collapse = high reversal probability
๐ป Scenario 2: Breakdown Short
Trigger: 1h candle close < $155.83 + volume > 1M SOL
Entry: $155.50โ$156.00
Targets:
TP1: $148.90 (-4.4%)
TP2: $137.14 (-12.3%)
Stop Loss: $157.50
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๐ผ Risk Management
Capital Exposure: Max 2% of portfolio
Reward/Risk Ratio: 4:1 in Scenario 1
Confirmation Tools:
15m/1h volume >800K = valid breakout
4h close > $165 = structure flip
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โ Conclusion
Bias: Bullish reversal setup active, but fragile.
Watch:
$155.83 โ support fails = strong sell-off
$165.13 โ breakout = start of recovery
Action Plan:
Enter Scenario 1 now with 80% position
Add 20% on retest at $158.50 (if StochRSI > 5)
Take profit at TP1 (60%), rest scale out
๐ Fundamental Triggers to Monitor:
Solana network upgrade news
BTC movement (SOLโs beta โ 1.3x)
Meme coin activity on Solana (liquidity driver)
Trade from here ๐$SOL
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๐ฌ Stay alert. This setup has potential but needs confirmation from volume and candle closes.
๐ Follow for real-time trade updates
