#تابعني_لحصولك_علي_المزيد_من_المعلومات
The cryptocurrency market started the weekend with a significant decline, as the price of Bitcoin fell below $115,000, the lowest level since early July. Although this is considered an important price level, the latest on-chain data suggests that Bitcoin's climb is not over yet.
Distribution wave from long-term investors
According to a post by analyst Joao Wideson on X on August 1, the holding cycle of the long-term holder (LTH) group seems to be nearing its end.
While the market is still supported by Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, on-chain data indicates a clear shift: long-term investors have begun to offload their investments - and in large quantities.
Wideson stated that the LTH group sold about 50% of the Bitcoin listed in exchange-traded funds. However, he still expects the Bitcoin bull market to continue for at least two more months, while the altcoin bull cycle may last up to three months.
4 important on-chain indicators
To reinforce his confirmation, Wideson presented four key on-chain indicators:
Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) – Terminal Adjusted Version
This indicator measures the amount of Bitcoin that has been dormant for a long time and has started to move. Over the past two years, there have been significant movements in old BTC, creating 3 warning signals that coincide with local peaks.
Reserve Risk Indicator
Measures LTH confidence level compared to the current price. This indicator has entered a warning area, clearly indicating increased selling and transferring activity of BTC.
Profit-to-Spent Output Ratio (SOPR) Trend Signal
Measuring whether BTC is being transferred at a profit or loss. Recently, the SOPR has shown a bearish signal, indicating profit-taking is increasing in the market.
Bitcoin Market Cycle Peak Forecast - Simple Moving Average (SMA) Crossover Model
This is the model that Wideson considers the most accurate method for determining the macro peak for Bitcoin.
Currently, this indicator has not yet sent a bearish signal. According to the analysis, when the blue line on the chart reaches $69,000, it is likely that the market will reach a peak cycle.
No time to panic yet
While many indicators have started to issue warnings, Wideson stated that there is no evidence confirming that the market has reached its final peak. Historical cycles also show that the current period remains promising, despite increasing volatility and selling pressure from LTH.
At the time of writing this report, the price of Bitcoin was trading at around $113,052, down 1.2% over the past 24 hours. Analysts recommend that investors exercise caution, avoid panic, and closely monitor on-chain indicators to identify high-risk points in this cycle.
