The inflow of 200,573 Ethereum into exchanges on August 1 created significant sell pressure, pushing the price below 3,550 USD, making ETH's short-term outlook negative.
A large amount of Ethereum being transferred to exchanges poses the risk of continued price decline, with the next support levels at 3,200 USD and possibly close to 3,000 USD if selling pressure does not cease.
MAIN CONTENT
Large exchange inflows cause ETH's price to drop below the 3,550 USD support level, indicating the risk of a sharp decline.
The selling activity of whales and Arthur Hayes, along with the decrease in OI, increases downward price pressure.
Netflow data shows that the accumulation extending through July was interrupted by profit-taking pressure at the beginning of August.
How does the large inflow of capital on August 1 affect Ethereum's price?
The inflow of 200,573 Ethereum to exchanges on August 1 reinforced short-term sell pressure, causing the price of ETH to drop below the key support area around 3,550 USD.
This event occurred when the price of ETH had been hovering in the range from 3,550 USD to 3,860 USD for several days. Breaching the 3,550 USD threshold opens the risk of the price retreating to lower support areas like 3,200 USD or even 3,000 USD if selling pressure continues to rise.
The CryptoQuant report indicates: the 7-day average Netflow of Ethereum was always negative in July, but the sudden significant inflow at the beginning of August may signal profit-taking by large investors.
CryptoQuant, 08/2025
This development adds to investor concerns, as many studies show that a large amount of tokens transferring to exchanges is mainly to prepare for selling to realize profits or respond to negative market fluctuations (Source: The Block Research, Q2/2025).
Why are large inflows to exchanges seen as a negative signal?
Most ETH inflows to exchanges indicate preparations for selling or asset rebalancing, creating short-term downward pressure on prices.
When a massive influx of capital hits the exchanges just as prices are weakening, analysts view this as a confirmation of distribution or profit-taking, similar to past price drops of Bitcoin and Ethereum in historical correction waves (Source: Glassnode, 2024).
Large capital inflows to exchanges often lead to overwhelming sell pressure, causing significant price drops, especially when combined with weak technical signals.
James Butterfill, Head of Research, CoinShares, interviewed on May 5, 2025 (according to Cointelegraph)
This situation is more pronounced when just before that, the 7-day Netflow was continuously negative indicating accumulation, then interrupted by significant inflows, showing that investor sentiment had shifted from accumulation buying to profit-taking selling.
What is the role of whales and insiders in the new ETH sell-off wave?
Whales and insiders have shifted, selling large amounts of ETH in just a few days, contributing to increased sell pressure in the market.
Typically, within just 48 hours, a whale deposited a total of 26,182 ETH onto major exchanges like Binance and Kraken. Additionally, Arthur Hayes – co-founder of BitMEX – also sold 2,373 ETH worth 8.32 million USD and 7.76 million ENA worth 4.62 million USD (Source: LookonChain, 01/08/2025).
The significant movement of whales and Arthur Hayes shows that speculative buying power in ENA and ETH may have stalled, paving the way for a new correction wave.
LookonChain analysis report, 01/08/2025
Particularly, the actions of influencers are always an early warning signal for the community, as most trends during corrections are linked to distribution or position reduction from this group (Source: Kaiko Research, 2023).
Decreased Open Interest and a positive Funding Rate – What signals does this send for the trend?
The OI of ETH decreased by 5.47% in the past 24 hours, while the Funding Rate remains positive, indicating that trader sentiment is shifting to caution despite still having a dominant Long position.
A decrease in OI means investors are cutting back on derivative positions (Futures, Perpetual Contracts), indicating caution amidst poor price and exchange inflow conditions. A positive Funding Rate continues as most open positions are still Long, but if the price drops further, the Funding Rate may flip to negative, confirming a clearer downward trend.
The consensus of declining OI data and a positive Funding Rate indicates that the market is shifting its sentiment to a defensive position, but the Long players have not completely given up.
Adam McCarthy, Coinalyze analyst, 08/2025, daily market newsletter
Similar to previous major corrections, the state of significantly reduced OI while the Funding Rate remains high often occurs when Long traders are forced to exit positions or proactively cut short-term losses (Source: Coinalyze, 07/2025).
July saw accumulation, but August began with a sudden strong sell-off – What is the overall picture?
In July, the 7-day Netflow of Ethereum remained below 0, reflecting the accumulation strategy of most large investors. However, right at the beginning of August, the inflow of 200,573 ETH reversed the trend, raising questions about the next developments.
Broadly speaking, a prolonged negative Netflow is a precursor to a medium-term bullish trend, but large profit-taking or rebalancing actions at the beginning of the month can easily knock down short-term support levels, pulling prices down sharply to the next important thresholds.
Moreover, this is also a common characteristic of major correction cycles previously recorded in other major coin markets like Bitcoin, where token inflows to exchanges often spike before significant drops or deep corrections (Source: CryptoMarketCap, 2023-2024).
What are the next technical support levels for ETH if the price continues to decline?
Since the beginning of August 2025, Ethereum has fallen below the 3,550 USD support area, confirming a technical bearish signal. The next important thresholds are the Fair Value Gap of 3,200 USD and the hard support established in July at 2,936 USD.
The 12-hour chart (TradingView) shows the Awesome Oscillator has just turned negative, confirming a short-term bearish fluctuation. Notably, the 50-period MA, which was a dynamic support, is also being tested; if broken, the bearish signal will strengthen.
Ethereum's market history has recorded significant drops to the 3,000 USD threshold and subsequently recovered when groups of whales and institutions bought to accumulate around this mark (Source: TradingView data from 2022, 2023).
Support levels Description 3,550 USD The area was breached at the beginning of August 3,200 USD Fair Value Gap on the 12h chart 2,936 USD Strong support from July
What does on-chain data from July indicate about investor behavior?
The CryptoQuant report shows that July recorded a long series of negative Netflows, reflecting strong accumulation trends of ETH from large investors.
The continuous negative 7-day Netflow indicates an optimistic sentiment and sets medium to long-term bullish expectations for ETH.
CryptoQuant, 07/2025
On-chain analysis shows that consecutive negative Netflows often lead to sustainable growth phases for Ethereum, especially when combined with favorable macro factors and significant institutional capital flowing into the Layer 2 ecosystem based on Ethereum (Source: ConsenSys, 2024).
However, investors need to be cautious of sudden inflows and unusual price increases, as this is often the time when whales realize profits or reduce their positions before a correction wave.
Has history recorded shock drops in ETH after significant exchange inflows?
Data from 2022 and 2023 confirms that each time massive ETH inflows occur in a weak market context, significant downward waves follow.
For instance, in November 2022, over 220,000 ETH transferred to Binance caused the price of ETH to drop from 1,650 USD to nearly 1,080 USD in a week (Source: The Block Research). History confirms that each time this movement occurs, at least ETH tends to drop significantly to the nearest support zone before entering a phase of accumulation and recovery.
Cycle analyses also indicate that a price drop does not mean the end of a long-term uptrend, but mid-cycle corrections present opportunities for institutional groups to accumulate again at better prices (Source: Ark Invest, 2024).
Is there hope for a short-term recovery after this correction?
Although the short-term outlook remains negative, some medium-term positive signals may emerge if strong support levels like 3,200 USD or 2,936 USD hold.
History has also recorded sharp drops occurring within just 3-6 trading sessions, followed by rebounds when buying organizations consolidate support zones or significant capital flows back to key DeFi DApps (Source: DeFiLlama, Q1/2025).
Moreover, if the Funding Rate flips to negative and OI increases again after a shock drop, early bullish reversal signals could be confirmed by new speculative capital returning to the market.
What risk management and expectations are there for current ETH investors?
Investors should consider flexible asset allocation, implementing rigorous risk management in the face of high volatility and significant sell pressure from whales and insiders.
Avoid using high leverage and limit chasing purchases in areas that have not established clear support; moreover, it is necessary to closely monitor on-chain data and the reactions of institutional groups to identify early signs of returning capital.
Traders should prioritize defensive positions, setting tight stop-losses to avoid liquidation risks when ETH fluctuates abnormally according to exchange inflows.
James Edwards, CryptoCompare analyst, August 2025, ETH market summary
In situations where prices repeatedly breach significant support levels, long-term investors are advised not to rush to inject all funds, waiting for sustainable recovery signals in both price and OI, Funding Rate, as well as cash flow into large DeFi platforms on Ethereum.
Comparing the impact of Ethereum's exchange inflows with other major altcoins recently
When massive capital inflows hit exchanges, the price of ETH usually fluctuates more than smaller altcoins due to its large market capitalization and domino effect on many Layer 2 ecosystems and major DApps.
For example, coins like Solana, BNB, or Avalanche during major corrections also saw spikes in exchange inflow, but the price drop was only about 8-12%, while ETH typically lost 12-18% (Source: Messari, Q2/2025 data compilation).
Coin Name Peak Token Inflows (7 days) Maximum Price Drop Ethereum 200,573 ETH ~15% Solana 4 million SOL ~11% BNB 1.2 million BNB ~9%
This difference stems from the large Ethereum community size and the higher trading proportion of institutional investors compared to other altcoins.
How are large investors reacting to the current trading trend of ETH?
The institutional Holder group often increases accumulation when ETH's price drops sharply towards long-term support zones, while avoiding FOMO during short-term recovery waves in accumulation or major distribution phases.
According to aggregated data from Ark Invest (2024), after sharp price drops due to large inflows, most investment funds only reallocate ETH when recovery signals appear alongside on-chain indicators such as NUPL, SOPR, and total locked value in Layer 2 increases again.
Additionally, investment funds also use Funding Rate, OI, and large transfer movements to determine the most effective injection points, helping to mitigate risks and optimize long-term profits.
What are the medium-term forecasts for ETH in the context of increasing exchange inflows?
In the medium term, if strong support zones (3,200 USD or 2,936 USD) hold and signs of outflows occur (Netflow returns to negative), the likelihood of ETH recovering above 3,500 USD is quite high.
However, if selling pressure persists and there is no significant capital return to DeFi, ETH may continue to test lower ranges and maintain fluctuations from 2,900 USD to 3,300 USD throughout August 2025.
Most experts agree that in the long run, the upward trend remains intact as Ethereum is the most favored platform for Layer 2 activities, NFTs, DeFi, and is continuously expanding its ecosystem (Source: Messari Crypto Market, 2025).
Frequently Asked Questions
What impact does the inflow of 200,573 Ethereum on August 1 have on price?
This large selling pressure caused ETH to lose the 3,550 USD threshold, opening up the risk of a short-term decline to 3,200 USD or lower, according to CryptoQuant data.
How do whale sales of ETH and Arthur Hayes influence the market?
The action of selling tens of millions of USD worth of ETH and ENA by whales and Arthur Hayes creates a ripple effect, pushing market sentiment negative and significantly increasing downward price pressure.
What does a 5.47% decrease in Open Interest mean?
A decrease in OI indicates that investors are reducing derivative trades, shifting to a defensive stance due to risk concerns, reflecting a short-term bearish trend in the ETH market.
What does a negative 7-day Netflow in July signal?
Prolonged negative Netflow indicates that large investors are continuously accumulating ETH, setting medium to long-term bullish expectations for Ethereum, according to CryptoQuant.
To what range can ETH price drop if selling pressure continues?
The main supports are at 3,200 USD and 2,936 USD; if these areas do not hold, ETH may drop further before recovering.
Historical evidence of exchange inflow causing ETH to drop shockingly?
Large exchange inflows have previously caused significant drops in ETH, such as in November 2022 when the price fell from 1,650 USD to nearly 1,080 USD in just one week, according to The Block Research.
Advice for investors before the ETH price drop?
Investors should manage risks, avoid FOMO, not go all-in in unstable price regions, and only invest more when there are clear recovery signals in both price and on-chain data.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/3-tin-hieu-du-bao-eth-ve-3-200-usd/
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