#币安七周年 HODLer airdrop TREE Five years ago, I woke up to the red alert of the exchange in the early morning. In just three hours, my account with 6 million in assets was completely liquidated, leaving nothing. I watched the negative numbers constantly jumping on the computer screen, feeling as if I was nailed to the cross of reality.
Finally, it was only after enlightenment that I understood: the crypto world is not a casino, but a battlefield. I borrowed 1 million from friends everywhere, continuously summarized failure cases, learned various trading skills, strategies, and market analysis, and summarized a set of trading methods with a success rate of 90%. It was truly not easy! Perpetual contract leverage selection guide: Why 100x leverage might be your optimal solution?
1. The underlying logic of perpetual contracts
- Unlimited holding: Can hold permanently as long as margin call is not triggered.
- Price anchoring: Maintain linkage with spot through funding rates.
- Leverage freedom: Flexibly adjust leverage to fit different capital strategies.
2. The core formula for leverage selection: Risk × Efficiency = Return
1. Essence of Risk: Leverage risk depends on position control; 100x leverage, through scientific management, can equate to the risk of low leverage.
2. Comparison of Capital Efficiency (Taking BTC 4700U as an example)
| Leverage Multiple | Margin | Occupancy Rate | Fee Impact |
|----------|--------|--------|------------|
| 1x | 4700U | 100% | Significant |
| 30x | 156.7U | 3.34% | Relatively High |
| 100x | 47U | 1% | Relatively Low |
Core Conclusion: 100x leverage only requires 1% of the principal to open a position; 99% of the funds can be used as risk reserves, effectively avoiding transaction fee losses.
3. 100x Leverage Practical Risk Control System
1. Position Management
- Single margin ≤ 5% of total capital.
- For a principal amount of 5000U, it is recommended to hold ≤ 20 contracts (total margin ≤ 940U).
2. Dynamic Risk Control
- Fixed stop loss of 2-3%, 5% profit activates trailing stop loss.
- Daily lock in a 1-2% profit target.
3. Trading Discipline
- Prohibit holding positions; adopt a progressive position model.
- Daily trading ≤ 2 hours to avoid emotional trading.
4. Profit Calculation (5000U Principal)
Table
Market Scenario Daily Return Monthly Return Risk Control Performance
Ideal market 2% 3000U Controllable
Normal fluctuation 1% 1000U Stable
Extreme Market -5% -500U Risk Isolation
Core Conclusion: Under strict risk control, 100x leverage can achieve low risk and high return.
5. Newbie Pitfalls
1. 30x full position risk > 100x 5% position
2. Reserve 5% of the principal as maintenance margin to prevent liquidation.
Summary: 100x leverage is a professional capital allocation tool. Mastering scientific risk control enables efficient and stable trading.
Three moving averages teach you to understand trends.
People often ask, "Why do I keep losing money trading cryptocurrencies?" In reality, many times it's because they don't understand the trend! Today, I will share a "Three-Line Analysis Method" that is simple and practical, allowing beginners to quickly grasp it!
Core Tools: Three Key Moving Averages
Open the K-line chart and set these three lines; they can help you judge the timing of buying and selling.
- 5-day moving average (short-term trend): Reflects short-term price fluctuations; quick and sensitive.
- 20-day moving average (medium-term trend): Smoothly filters short-term interference, grasping the medium-term direction.
- 60-day moving average (long-term trend): Determines the boundary between bull and bear; very stable.
Four-Step Trading Rules (Recommended for Collection)
1. Coin Selection Principles
Prioritize selecting coins with a bullish alignment of moving averages (5-day > 20-day > 60-day) and stay away from coins with bearish moving averages to avoid 'downward traps'.
2. Entry Timing
- If the coin price stabilizes above the 20-day moving average, you can try low position trading.
- Break above the 60-day moving average and retrace without breaking it to add positions.
- Short-term rapid rise away from moving averages, be cautious in chasing highs.
3. Exit Signals
- If it breaks below the 5-day moving average, reduce positions to avoid short-term risks.
- If it effectively breaks below the 20-day moving average, clear positions to take profit/cut losses.
- Losing the 60-day moving average indicates a trend reversal, decisively exit.
4. Practical Reminders
- No method is 100% accurate; it must be combined with trading volume, industry hotspots, and other auxiliary judgments.
- Strictly execute stop losses to avoid being trapped.
- Build positions in batches to diversify risk; do not put all your eggs in one basket.
Hard-earned experience: A friend of mine heavily invested because of news and although there was a temporary surge, he didn't set a stop-loss. When it broke below the 60-day moving average, he was hopeful and ultimately lost more than half. Remember: Trend is king, discipline is shield, only then can you walk steadily in the crypto world!
Following the market trend is the most reliable beacon on the road to success. During market downturns, do not attempt to catch the bottom; that is just an illusion like a mirage. When the market warms up and corrects, that is our golden opportunity to buy low, which is much safer than blindly holding the bottom. When picking digital currencies, we need to develop a discerning eye. Those coins that surge like meteors, whether mainstream or non-mainstream, should be cautiously avoided because their rapid rise is often followed by a similarly powerful correction. A slight misstep may lead to deep entrapment.
In the field of technical analysis, I particularly trust the MACD indicator++. When the DIF line and DEA line intertwine below the zero axis and successfully break above it, that is a good buying opportunity. Conversely, if they intersect above the zero axis and extend downward, that is a signal to reduce positions.
As for averaging down, that is a thorny road and should not be easily ventured. Once you incur losses, do not blindly average down, otherwise, you will only sink deeper and may end up losing everything. Remember to decisively cut losses when in the red; only add to positions gradually when in profit.
Trading volume is also an element that cannot be ignored. When the coin price breaks through at a low level, if the trading volume significantly increases, it often indicates that a major opportunity is coming.
The most critical aspect is to follow the trend. Combining the trends of the daily line, 30-day line, 84-day line, 120-day line, and other time periods, when any of these lines starts to show an upward turning point, you will clearly perceive the market direction and make the right decisions. The road of digital currency investment is filled with risks but also holds infinite opportunities. Only by mastering the essence of capital management, the skills of trend analysis, and the keen eye for selecting coins can you, like me, gradually rise from a small starting point to become a member of the middle class.
So how do retail investors make money?
Many people may say that short-term trading relies on technology while long-term trading relies on logic. In essence, short-term trading relies on emotions, while long-term trading relies on value. Value itself also carries emotions; just as Bitcoin can be speculated up to 70,000 and can also drop back to 15,000, it is not that Bitcoin's value has changed, but rather the market's emotions have changed; Bitcoin is still the same Bitcoin.
Therefore, understanding market emotions is also essential for long-term investment value. As for short-term trading, the so-called K-line techniques are essentially a reflection of market emotions. How main capital draws K-lines completely depends on the overall market sentiment, whether there is capital following the trend, and whether there is market heat. You could say that what is seen and heard on the K-line is what the capital wants you to see and is not a natural formation of trades. The ultimate reflection of emotions is trading volume.
Therefore, any rise or fall of a cryptocurrency is ultimately reflected in the trading volume. Only with volume can there be price; without volume, it can only go downhill. The first step for retail investors to combat emotions is to understand trading volume, and only participate when there is volume. The principle is simple: volume means capital is in operation, no volume means capital is abandoning cryptocurrency in the short term.
Why do short-term traders speculate on hot spots? Because capital clustering can lead to profit effects. Even for long-term bull coins, value investment is actually accompanied by volume; during periods of low volume and consolidation, continuous observation is also necessary. Retail investors must combat emotions and understanding trading volume alone does not solve the problem; you must have your own trading principles.
The second step for retail investors to combat emotions is to set clear buying and selling conditions. Many retail traders buy and sell at will, doing whatever they please.
The buying point basically is when the cryptocurrency has surged; if you don't buy now, it will take off. The selling point is basically when the cryptocurrency has plummeted; if you don't sell now, you will be deeply trapped. The emotion of chasing highs and cutting losses is inherent, stemming from the dramatic fluctuations of the market, which causes retail investors' mindset and emotions to collapse. To combat emotions, retail investors must stop buying and selling at will and clarify their buying and selling conditions, under what circumstances to buy and under what circumstances to sell. There must be a clear principle established before holding positions; do not act on impulse.
The third step to combat emotions is to understand patience and letting go. In the trading mindset of retail investors, there is another aspect that is a weakness of human nature: regret. You will regret why you didn't sell at the time, leading to a drop in price and losses. You will regret why you didn't buy, causing the price to soar and missing out. Retail investors need to learn to be patient and that patience is about unrealized losses.
As long as the investment logic does not change, unrealized losses are something that must be accepted. This is one of the situations that will inevitably occur on the investment road; no one can perfectly buy at the lowest point. Retail investors need to learn to let go; what is given up is the missed opportunity. As long as cryptocurrency does not align with your investment logic, even if the price keeps rising, do not follow the trend to buy; you must learn to let go. Let go of rises that do not fall within your cognitive range. Cold-blooded people are more likely to make money in cryptocurrency trading because without emotions is the only way to survive in the market.
Keep learning and enhance your understanding. I have summarized 5 key insights, full of valuable information, and hope that those who read it will find inspiration!
1. Do not rush to stop loss during a big drop in the morning; usually, it is an overreaction to negative news from the night before. You can wait for market repair and reversal. Do not blindly chase after a surge at the end of the day; some main players like to test the market and lure buying, and the next day they may open low to accumulate.
2. Make good use of trading volume, a practical technique, as volume can indicate future trends. Continuous rise on decreasing volume indicates strong control by the main force, while a drop on decreasing volume means panic selling has not occurred; the ice point has not been reached, so it will continue to drop.
3. Learn to observe the top structure of sectors; typically, sector trends are formed by five waves. The first wave generates follow-up buying, the second wave washes out and adjusts, the third wave is the main upward wave, the fourth wave shows complex divergences, and the fifth wave sells out. In this process, the third wave has the largest increase, followed by the first wave, and the fifth wave has the lowest. However, trends are ever-changing, and it's not uncommon to not see five wave formations; one cannot memorize rigidly. When you discover that the leading sector has risen, and the follow-up trend does not continue with previous strength, it is likely to have peaked.
4. Every time the main cryptocurrency accelerates at the top, you will see a certain sector's altcoins surge, leading to a reversal in the main cryptocurrency. Just flip through the performances of major leaders to see if they stop falling and start rising, then the index will also follow up.
5. Specialization and Focus are key to entering the market, especially for newcomers. Research one strategy and master its skills. This is much more beneficial than trying to learn multiple skills at once; being greedy leads to loss, and being unskilled can easily result in market lessons. Do not switch models casually; calm down and learn, and gradually you will find your way to success. After achieving stable profits, then learn more techniques for integration.
"When you walk through the storm, you are no longer the person you were. Those difficult days will ultimately become your armor."