Bitcoin is trading in a range from $113,561 to $113,800 in the past hour with a market capitalization of $2.26 trillion. Over the past 24 hours, it has recorded a trading volume of $49.17 billion and a daily price range from $112,680 to $115,899, revealing increased volatility and uncertainty in the short-term trend.
Bitcoin
A detailed assessment of the daily chart shows the recent bearish decline of Bitcoin from a high of around $123,236, indicating a short-term downtrend. Strong selling near the peak suggests a distribution phase, with clear resistance identified from $118,000 to $120,000. The price has recently found support in the range of $112,680 to $113,000, where there were previously high-volume bounces. If the price returns to this range and selling pressure decreases, it may open up an optimistic re-entry point. However, if it cannot regain territory above $117,000 with new volume, it will reinforce bearish sentiment and signal an exit opportunity.
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin shows clear bearish momentum, emphasized by the appearance of bearish engulfing candles. The price has reached a support floor at $112,680, but recovery efforts are weak, characterized by low-volume green candles. The market appears to be entering a potential accumulation zone from $112,500 to $114,500. A decisive breakout above this range with strong volume could initiate a short squeeze targeting $116,000, while a drop below $112,500 would confirm continued bearish momentum.
The BTC/USD 1-hour chart confirms a microstructure of lower highs and lower lows, reinforcing the current short-term downtrend. Although there was a slight bounce from $112,680, volume remains inadequate, and the candle patterns lack conviction. Immediate resistance is found between $114,200 and $114,500. A clear breakout above this level could trigger a short-term bullish move, but failing to hold above $113,000 risks increasing downward pressure.
The oscillators show mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at a neutral 43, while Stochastic is at 13, also reflecting neutrality. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at -265 and momentum at -5.256 both indicate potential bullish conditions, in contrast to the different convergence levels of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at 730, indicating a bearish signal. The Average Directional Index (ADX) at 21 indicates a weak trend, and the Awesome Oscillator at 1.172 remains neutral. These indicators suggest market indecisiveness, with possibilities set in both directions depending on volume and breakout confirmation.
The moving averages reflect a short-term bearish attitude and a long-term bullish trend. The exponential moving averages (EMAs) and simple moving averages (SMAs) in the 10-, 20-, and 30-period indicate bearish signals, with values higher than the current price. Conversely, the EMAs and SMAs in the 50-, 100-, and 200-period are below the current price and suggest bullish signals. This divergence indicates a transitional phase where long-term investors remain optimistic while short-term traders react to recent price weakness. Positioning trades near support or resistance levels with volume confirmation remains crucial for managing risk in the current environment.
Assessment from the Bull side:
If Bitcoin maintains support above $112,500 and volume gradually decreases under selling pressure, there is potential for a bullish reversal to $116,000 and possibly a retest of resistance at $118,000. Continued strength in the 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages will support a long-term bullish outlook, provided that short-term accumulation resolves upwards.
Assessment from the Bear side:
If Bitcoin fails to hold support at $112,500 and faces rejection near $114,500, the bearish trend is likely to accelerate with a target drop near $110,000. The current weakness in short-term momentum, confirmed by sell signals at key moving averages and negligible buying interest, highlights a high-risk environment for bullish entry points.
