1️⃣ Core PCE Price Index (QoQ)
Actual (Q2 2025): 2.50%
Forecast: 2.40%
Previous (Q1): 3.50%
🧊 Takeaway: Inflation is cooling — but still above the Fed’s 2% target.
Source: Investing.com
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2️⃣ Real GDP Growth (QoQ)
Advance Estimate (Q2): +3.0%
Forecast: ~2.5%
Previous (Q1): −0.5%
📌 Strong bounce! But driven largely by imports and inventories — real underlying growth may be closer to 0.5%.
Source: BEA.gov
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3️⃣ July Jobs Report – Released Today
Nonfarm Payrolls: Only +73,000
Unemployment Rate: Ticked up to 4.2%
Previous Months Revised Down: A total of 258,000 jobs removed
📉 Takeaway: Massive weakness in labor — strongest case yet for a rate cut.
Source: Reuters
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⚖️ What Will the Fed Do Next?
Option Outlook
Pause Most likely. Wait and watch.
Rate Hike Still possible if inflation sticks.
Rate Cut Now a real scenario if jobs weaken further.
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📉 Market Impact:
Pause or Hike:
Crypto and stocks may dip
Dollar strengthens
Gold under pressure
Surprise Cut:
Stock market relief rally
Risk-on mood returns
Polls now show 80% chance of rate cut by year-end, up from 67% just weeks ago.
Source: Business Insider
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🧠 Market Insight
While GDP looks hot at 3%, the true domestic growth is closer to 0.5%, with trade distortions exaggerating the number.
Source: The Guardian
The jobs report flipped sentiment inside the Fed — labor market fragility is now the main focus.
Source: Axios
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📢 Your Turn — Poll Time!
With these data shocks out now:
🤔 What should the Fed do at the next meeting?
1️⃣ Pause
2️⃣ Hike
3️⃣ Cut
💬 Drop your vote in the
$BTC comments and tell us why!
👇
#Fed #Inflation #PCE #GDP #Jobs #Crypto #Markets #XRP #Bitcoin #Finance
