• Confidence in Fed Chair Jerome Powell has dropped sharply after one weak jobs report undermined his claim that the U.S. labor market was still strong.

    In July 2025, the U.S. added just 73,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, far below economists’ anticipated 110,000 – 120,000. Previous monthly totals were revised sharply lower: May and June jobs were cut by a combined 258,000 (expected gains dropped from 144,000→19,000 in May, and 147,000→14,000 in June), wiping out nearly the entire workforce of a mid‑sized city. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2 % as well. MacroMicro+14The Wall Street Journal+14The Guardian+14

    Markets reacted instantly:

    • The chance of a September rate cut jumped from around 40 % to 75 %, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Investors.com+2AP News+2Morningstar+2Citizen Watch Report+3Norada Real Estate+3MacroMicro+3

      On U.S. Treasury bonds, the 2‑year yield dropped by 15 basis points to ~3.80 %, and the 10‑year fell about 8 bp.



    Donald Trump weighed in heavily, calling Powell a “stubborn MORON” and demanding immediate rate cuts via Truth Social. He even suggested the Fed board should step in and override Powell’s authority.

    The fallout: Either the U.S. job market is sliding into recession, or the official data is so unreliable that it erased over a quarter‑million jobs in two months. Either way, a September rate cut is no longer in question—markets see it as nearly guaranteed now.

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