On August 31, Bitcoin fell more than 5% to $112,722 on the Binance exchange. Alex Krüger sees the current cryptocurrency crash as a repetition of the August 2024 crash. The well-known crypto trader shared his analysis on social media X, explaining the reasons for the sharp market drop and his expectations regarding the further development of events.
Parallels with the August 2024 crash
According to Krüger, the current situation is reminiscent of last year's August crash, which was triggered by the Bank of Japan's rate hike, a 'hawkish' decision, and weak employment data. This led to a carry trade unwind and panic in the markets.
The current scenario is similar, but without the carry trade. The slightly 'hawkish' Fed decision coincided with the noise around corporate earnings — good results from Microsoft and Meta, acceptable from Apple, but poorly received from Amazon. There was also slightly elevated inflation in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index and aggressive profit-taking in stocks on July 31, turning the chart into a 'bull trap.' The picture was completed by terrible employment data.
Political noise and geopolitical risks
Krüger notes that Trump's reaction to the employment data — firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics 'in an Argentine style' — seemed insane, but for the markets, it's just noise. Similarly, Trump's negative comments about Fed Chair Powell remain background noise for now.
Additional pressure was exerted by geopolitical factors: the deployment of two U.S. nuclear submarines off the coast of Russia and Trump's statement about readiness for nuclear war with Russia. This helped liquidate leveraged market participants and establish a local bottom for Bitcoin after the trading day ended.
Forecasts and strategy
The trader believes that cryptocurrencies have either already reached a bottom or will find a bottom along with stocks on Monday, August 4. He plans to open long positions before the opening of the American trading session.
There are 6.5 weeks left until the next Fed meeting, with a meeting in Jackson Hole at the end of August and a lot of data that will help the Fed decide whether to finally lower rates. Krüger expects a cut in September.
The resignation of Fed Governor Kugler will be an important event, as it will give Trump the opportunity to appoint his person in advance. This candidate is likely to hold 'dovish' views and will put pressure on Powell along with dissenting committee members Waller and Bowman.
Long-term prospects
Krüger remains optimistic about cryptocurrencies until the fourth quarter, based on expectations of a stable U.S. economy, the beginning of Fed rate cuts, and the continued growth of cryptocurrency adoption by both institutional and retail investors against the backdrop of an improving regulatory environment.
His target for Bitcoin by mid-2026 is the range of $200,000–250,000. The expert calls this figure extreme but possible, especially considering the likely shift of the Fed to 'dovish' policy in May 2026.
However, the analyst warns that companies with cryptocurrency reserves may lose momentum in the fourth quarter, and a temporary return of inflation due to tariff shifts to consumers may complicate market conditions. The main negative scenario is related to possible poor results for Trump in the midterm elections.
