### 🧩 Current Technical Landscape
- Current price: $113,830 (down 1.34% in the last 24 hours).
- Market capitalization: $2.27 trillion, with a daily trading volume of $80.9 billion.
- Short-term trend: Dominance of a corrective downward wave, with the price trading below the 50-day simple moving average, indicating selling pressure.
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### 📉 Key Technical Indicators
1. Moving averages:
- The price is trading below the 50 SMA (bearish signal), but it is trying to test this level dynamically.
- Nearby resistance: $114,500, which previously formed a pivotal support that turned into resistance.
- Critical support: $112,000 (current day's low), followed by $108,956 as an important psychological barrier.
2. Oscillators:
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): In neutral territory (neither oversold nor overbought), indicating the market is waiting for a new catalyst.
- General momentum: Mixed signals; some indicators show positive crossovers, while others indicate continued downward pressure.
3. Liquidity structure:
- Demand Zones: Between $96,800–$97,300, which are potential price attraction areas in case of a deep drop.
- Pivot points: According to TradingView analysis, the price is trying to stabilize above the pivot point at $113,200.
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### 🌍 Fundamental factors at play
- US regulation:
- Release of the White House report (168 pages) which classifies Bitcoin as a **commodity** under CFTC oversight, enhancing institutional legitimacy in the long term.
- Focus on protecting investors and establishing tax policies tailored to cryptocurrencies.
- Market sentiment:
- Profit-taking after a previous uptrend, supported by fears of rising US interest rates.
- Collective decline in major cryptocurrency prices (Ethereum -4.18%, Ripple -1.45%).
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### 📈 Potential Future Scenarios
- Bullish scenario:
- Execution Conditions: Break resistance at $114,500 with a close above the 50 SMA.
- Targets: $115,000 → $118,000 → $120,000 (historical resistance points).
- Drivers: Institutional liquidity flows or positive news regarding Bitcoin adoption in payment systems.
- Bearish scenario:
- Execution Conditions: Break support at $112,000 with confirmation of oversold on the oscillators.
- Targets: $108,956 → $100,021 (strong technical support areas).
- Drivers: Escalating regulatory concerns or a sudden rise in the US dollar.
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### 📌 Strategic Recommendations
- Day traders:
- Buy at support: $112,000–$112,500 with a stop loss below $111,500.
- Sell at resistance: $114,300–$114,500 with a trailing stop above $115,000.
- Long-term investors:
- Accumulation at levels $100,000–$108,000, based on Robert Kiyosaki's forecast ($175,000–$350,000 by the end of 2025).
### 💎 Summary
The market is in a cautious waiting phase, dominated by short-term downward pressures, but the new US regulatory framework is a strong support for the long term. Immediate monitoring of levels $112,000 (support) and $114,500 (resistance) will determine the upcoming direction. Using stop orders is recommended to avoid sudden market fluctuations.