The impact of non-farm data on the cryptocurrency market is mainly reflected in market sentiment, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and capital flows. Below are the core impacts and recent dynamics:

1. Core Impact on the Crypto Space

• Federal Reserve Policy Expectations: Non-farm data is an important reference for policy adjustments. Weak data (insufficient new jobs, rising unemployment rate) may strengthen interest rate cut expectations, benefiting risk assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH); conversely, strong data may suppress easing expectations.

• Dollar Movement: Strong data often boosts the Dollar Index (DXY), leading to capital outflows from the cryptocurrency market; weak data may weaken the dollar, attracting funds into BTC and ETH.

• Risk Preference: Signals of economic slowdown may highlight the 'safe-haven' attributes of cryptocurrencies; strong data may suppress speculative sentiment.

2. Impact of August 2025 Non-farm Data (July Data)

• Data Results: July new jobs were 73,000 (expected 104,000, previous value 147,000), unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, a nine-month high, significantly below expectations.

• Market Reaction:

• BTC, ETH: There was a temporary rebound after data release due to interest rate cut expectations, but overall pressure remains due to Trump's tariff policy and hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve.

• Dollar Index: Short-term drop of 40 points to 99.79, later rebounding due to rising safe-haven sentiment.

• Correlation: Spot gold rose by 0.8% reflecting safe-haven demand, but cryptocurrencies have not fully followed due to tightening liquidity.

3. Additional Influencing Factors

• Trump's Tariff Policy: Partially effective from August 1, intensifying safe-haven sentiment and suppressing BTC and ETH.

• Discrepancies within the Federal Reserve: Two members opposed pausing interest rate cuts at the July FOMC meeting, increasing policy uncertainty.

• Technical Pressure: BTC has dropped below the $116,000 support level, ETH is testing the key $3,200 level, and may further decline without favorable support.

4. Trading Strategy Recommendations

• Short-term: Weak non-farm data may provide rebound opportunities for BTC/USDT and ETH/USDT, but caution is needed regarding volatility caused by tariff policies.

• Long-term: If the Federal Reserve shifts to a dovish stance, BTC may regain its 'digital gold' hedging attributes; if it maintains a hawkish stance, the market may remain under pressure.

Summary

Non-farm data directly influences cryptocurrency trends by affecting Federal Reserve policy and dollar liquidity. Currently, despite weak July data compounded by tariffs and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, the crypto space still faces significant volatility risks. Traders should focus on upcoming key events such as CPI and the Jackson Hole annual meeting.