📊 Market trends
Bitcoin$BTC The consolidation repair trend continues, reaching a daily high of $118,500 before a slight pullback. As of the time of writing, it is reported at $117,300, with a 24-hour volatility of 1.02%. Bulls have formed short-term support at the $116,000 level. Ethereum$ETH has shown relatively strong performance, breaking through the $3,800 level, with a daily increase of 0.92%. The average daily transaction volume on Layer 2 networks has reached 11.8 million, and the on-chain DeFi locked value has rebounded to $9.8 billion. Overall, the market shows mixed results, with 327 projects rising and 219 projects falling, indicating a trend of capital concentrating in leading assets.
📰 Important updates
The central bank and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority signed a cross-border payment agreement: The People's Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority signed a memorandum of understanding on cross-border payment connectivity between mainland China and Hong Kong on August 2, promoting the integration of rapid payment systems in both regions, with plans to achieve real-time cross-border transfers within the year. This move will provide infrastructure support for the compliance of Hong Kong's stablecoins, and the first batch of stablecoins such as USDT and HUSD are expected to see increased demand in cross-border trade scenarios.
The application for Hong Kong's stablecoin regulations heats up the day after they take effect: According to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's official website, 15 institutions, including Ant International and JD Technology, have submitted pre-approval materials for licenses, focusing on offshore RMB settlement and digital asset custody. The market expects the first batch of licenses to be issued in Q4, with licensed institutions needing to complete 100% high liquidity reserve verification within 12 months, putting pressure on small and medium projects due to technical and funding barriers.
The token unlocking wave for August officially starts: According to Token Unlocks data, on August 2, Galxe (GAL) unlocked 4 million tokens (accounting for 3.5% of circulation, valued at $13 million), and Ethena (ENA) unlocked 40.63 million tokens (accounting for 0.64%, valued at $27.16 million). Solana (SOL) will face a token unlocking of $747 million this week, necessitating caution against selling pressure impacting prices in the short term.
The cryptocurrency sector in US stocks shows weak rebound: Coinbase fell by 1.2% due to market concerns over delays in the SEC's review of spot Bitcoin ETFs. MicroStrategy announced an increase of 1,250 Bitcoin, bringing its total holdings to 189,150 tokens, but its stock price still dropped by 0.8%, reflecting traditional capital's cautious attitude toward crypto assets.
🔍 Potential impact
US non-farm payroll data for July exceeded expectations (adding 209,000 jobs), strengthening high interest rate expectations. The dollar index rebounded to 105.2, suppressing the valuation of risk assets. After the implementation of the Hong Kong cross-border payment agreement, the penetration of stablecoins in trade settlements is expected to increase, but attention should be paid to the liquidity contraction risk brought by the narrowing of regulatory arbitrage space.
⚠️ Risk warning
China has clarified that activities related to virtual currencies are illegal financial activities, and participants should be wary of policy risks.
The scale of token unlocks in August reached a new high for the year, with projects like Solana and Worldcoin facing selling pressure tests.
The compliance costs for stablecoins in Hong Kong are high, which may lead small and medium issuers to exit the market, increasing industry concentration.
The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has dropped to 45.7%, and maintaining high interest rates may suppress the valuation center of crypto assets.
(Information sourced from public channels, not investment advice)