📍US Labor Market in July: Nearing Recession Bottom, Fed Receives Clear Warning

📌 The US added only 73k jobs in July – lower than the expected 106k. Two months ago, the total was revised down by -258k, bringing the 3-month average down to 35k/month — equivalent to the recession bottom of 2019–2020.

📌 The unemployment rate rose to 4.248%, the highest since 10/2021. The labor force participation rate fell to 62.2%, the lowest in nearly 2 years.

📌 Expanded unemployment increased to 7.9%, and long-term unemployment surged to 24.9% – clearly reflecting the state of job loss + inability to find new jobs.

📌 Household surveys showed a net loss of -260k jobs, contrasting with the +73k figure from businesses → a pattern that often appears before a recession.

📌 Full-time jobs decreased by -440k, while part-time jobs increased by +247k → workers are shifting to less stable jobs to make ends meet.

🔻 No longer just "cooling down" — this is a sign of a downturn. The market has priced in a greater than 70% probability of a rate cut in September, and the Fed has little room left to delay.