I am from Hunan, currently living in Chengdu. I entered the circle in 2018, just in time for the bear market, losing two waves with a principal of 200,000, almost being advised to exit the market. But seven years later, my assets have multiplied several times—no insider information, no early bird projects, and no genius logic, all relying on a set of 'simple methods': looking at volume, observing emotions, and waiting for the rhythm.
This is not a profound theory, but the survival rules that the market has taught me through blood and tears. Today I share it for free; understanding just one can save you tens of thousands:
1. The 'foolish signal' of the main force eating: rapid rise + slow fall.
Market truth: a rapid rise followed by a slow decline is often a sign that the main force is washing out. The worst is a sudden spike followed by a crash—that's to lure in more buyers and cut losses.
Captain's blood and tears case: a certain altcoin surged 30% in one day in 2021, then declined 10% over the next week, retail investors panicked and sold, resulting in a doubling the following month.
2. The 'death combo' of the main force running away: dropping sharply + rising slowly.
Weak rebounds after a crash, especially low volume rebounds, are likely the final stage of unloading. Don't rush to catch the bottom; be careful of catching falling knives.
Counterexample: After the LUNA crash in 2023, there was a brief rebound, and countless people rushed in to 'pick up cheap', resulting in a total loss.
3. No volume at the top is more dangerous than high volume.
High volume at peaks indicates there is still money in play, but low volume and sideways movement at highs often signal a crash is coming—there's no one left to take over.
Data: statistics show that when BTC peaked at $69,000 on April 6, 2024, the trading volume dropped by 40%, and then halved.
4. Volume increase at the bottom must be 'continuous'.
A sudden high-volume bullish candle might be a lure; the real opportunity is: continuous 3 days of high volume + low volume fluctuations, indicating the main force has completed building positions.
Mnemonic: 'One bullish candle changes three views, three bullish candles set the universe.'
5. The essence of trading coins is trading emotions.
K-line is just the result; emotion is the engine. Volume reflects market consensus—high volume breakout = emotional peak, low volume sideways = capital is on the sidelines.
Classic battle: when ETH broke through $4,000 in June 2025, Twitter discussion volume surged by 300%, followed by a 20% correction the next week.
6. The two realms of experts: able to hold cash, dare to go heavy.
Don't chase highs: missing out is better than losing everything.
Don't gamble with your life: 99% of leveraged liquidations are due to 'I think it can still rise.'
Don't be attached to battles: take the body of the fish, but don't be greedy for the tail.
Why can't most people make money?
Emotionally hijacked: shout 'take off' at every rise, curse 'scam' at every fall.
Overtrading: transaction fees can eat away the principal.
Blindly copying homework: following big influencers but not understanding stop-losses, ending up as the bag holder.
My simple method core:
Use volume to identify the main force (the main force's washout must leave traces);
Time trades with emotions (panic buying at the bottom, euphoric selling at the top);
Make money with patience (only take 3-5 certain opportunities a year).
Finally, I offer you a piece of advice from a fellow Hunanese.
'The market is like the water of the Xiangjiang River—don't jump in when it flows fast, wait until it slows down to fish.'
If you want to avoid detours, pay attention to @船长趋势 . There are no deities in the coin circle, but there are definitely pioneers. Remember: in this market, slow is fast, and foolish is wise. The exclusive secret of pioneers in the coin circle: insight into the market, steady progress, teaching you how to steadily appreciate value—risk and opportunity coexist in investing, blindly operating is a big taboo in the coin circle!