📉 What Just Happened

July 31: Bitcoin dropped below $114,000, activating over $200M in liquidations from leveraged long positions. This wiped out recent bullish momentum.

Weak U.S. jobs data and new trade/tariff measures triggered a broader “risk-off” sentiment—crypto markets dropped ~3‑3.5% in sync with equities.

Futures and ETF derivatives show neutral‑to‑bearish indicators: ETF outflows, slumping futures premiums, and fading short delta exposure from funds.

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🔍 Is the Bull Run Dead? Not Yet

Signal Why It Matters

On-chain fundamentals remain sound Long-term holders are not selling. ETF demand remains strong outside of short-term outflows.

Analyst forecasts are mixed While some (like Rekt Capital and Xanrox) warn of corrections to $60K, others see another 1–3 months of upside ahead, possibly stretching into 2026.

Macro risks are high, but not fatal Fed policy inertia, tariff shocks, and soft labor data pressure sentiment—but don’t directly erase structural demand.

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🧭 Where We Could Go from $115K

1. Range-bound consolidation (~$112K–$120K) — A half-dozen weeks of slow accumulation while macro stabilizes.

2. Prolonged correction (~10–20%) — Analysts warn of downside to low‑$100Ks or $60K if sentiment sours.

3. New breakout (> $122K) — Institutional inflows and ETF adoption may resume, fueling a move toward $150K–$200K.

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⚠️ Trading Notes & Strategy

Watch $112K–$114K — A close below this level accompanied by high volume could be the tipping point for deeper drawdown.

Monitor BTC/ETH ETF flows — Swift reversals to inflow-cycle may support price recovery; continued outflows will raise concerns.

Keep eye on futures premium and open interest — Persistent roll yield drops or elevated backwardation hint at bearish tilt.

Macro fundamentals still matter — Further tariff threats or hawkish Fed signals could trigger volatility spikes, even if BTC demand remains firm.

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🧠 Final Take

This dip is a risk-on signal, but it hasn’t broken the long-term market structure yet. Institutions and long-term wallets remain largely intact, and the ETF megatrend hasn’t gone away—it’s just taking a breather. Bitcoin still trades above key support and derivatives data hasn’t flipped into full-on panic.

If momentum returns or a major upgrade/dApp wins attention, another leg up is still in play. At this point, Bitcoin is standing on a knife’s edge—but still inside the envelope of the 2025 bull cycle.

⚠️ For informational purposes only, not financial advice. Always do your own research.