The price level of $3,700 is a key boundary determining Ethereum's fate in 2025, as the strength of cash flow from new ETFs directly confronts macroeconomic pressures and concerns about corrections.
Ethereum's price increase is currently influenced by both the wave of ETF capital and the pressure of a sluggish summer. If it successfully conquers the $3,700 threshold, Ethereum could trigger a new growth cycle across the cryptocurrency market.
MAIN CONTENT
The $3,700 level is a decisive threshold for Ethereum's fate in 2025, influenced by ETF cash flow and economic factors.
ETF capital from Wall Street creates a solid price foundation, yet the risk of corrections and competition from other blockchains remains.
Ethereum will lead the altcoin market if the $3,700 threshold is conquered, but still faces significant challenges in Q3.
Why is the $3,700 price level a decisive boundary for Ethereum?
$3,700 is not only a technical milestone but also reflects market confidence and expectations for Ethereum's breakthrough in the short and medium term.
The market always reacts strongly when Ethereum reaches long-term resistance zones due to the emergence of FOMO sentiment, profit-taking risks, and expectations of a new bull run.
Nguyen Hoang, analyst at Coin98 Insights, June 2025
The year 2025 marks the first time Ethereum receives large cash flows from U.S. spot ETFs, making the $3,700 level a key psychological battleground for both institutional and individual investors. The scenario of breaking through or failing at this boundary could shape the direction of the entire altcoin market.
According to reports from Glassnode and Coinglass, trading around this price level each time causes liquidity and volatility to spike significantly. This attracts large cash flows into the derivatives market, while also triggering chain reactions regarding risk management on financial products related to Ethereum.
How do ETFs impact the Ethereum market in Q2 and early Q3?
The wave of spot ETFs has poured a total of $1.7 billion into Ethereum in Q2 2025, playing a major role in rescuing ETH's price.
Spot ETFs are the main catalyst saving Ethereum from a severe downtrend in Q1, while also creating an ideal price 'floor' ahead of harsh macroeconomic fluctuations.
Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck ETF, interviewed on Bloomberg in July 2025
Since the first Ether ETFs officially began trading (June 2025), many weeks have recorded capital inflows reaching billions of dollars, notably the ETHA fund from BlackRock. The participation of well-known financial institutions creates sustainable demand, absorbing selling pressure from individual traders or short-term holders.
The activation of institutional cash flow helps ETH become an attractive asset for large portfolio funds, extending liquidity and helping to stabilize prices compared to previous short-term 'pump-dump' periods. This is also why experts are optimistic about Ethereum's potential to lead a new altseason cycle if it stays above the $3,700 mark.
What reasons keep professional investors optimistic about ETH?
Institutional investors are showing confidence in the long-term upward trend of Ethereum through large positions in the Futures market along with record ETH staking.
CryptoQuant's Q2 2025 report shows that Ethereum trading activity in the futures market increased by 56%, reaching an average value of $51 billion/day. The Funding Rate indicator remains high, indicating that the buying side (bull) is controlling the market.
The fact that large investors maintain long positions shows confidence in Ethereum's transition process, especially after receiving support from ETFs and fundamental improvements in the network.
Michael Sonnenshein – CEO Grayscale, July 2025, Financial Times
Notably, over 30% of the total ETH supply (i.e., over 35 million ETH) has now been staked, taking this coin out of circulation, helping to mitigate selling pressure and increase scarcity on the Spot market. 'Ethereum whales', represented by many institutional wallets, also accumulated over 240,000 ETH just in June 2025 (LookOnChain), reinforcing a strong price floor in the short term.
How do macroeconomic overviews and summer typically affect Ethereum's price?
Although the ETF event creates strong demand, macro factors such as the Fed's policy and the summer's liquidity drop remain significant barriers causing Ethereum's upward momentum to face difficulties.
Typically in July and August, global cryptocurrency trading volumes drop by 25% to 35% (Coinmarketcap Data), making the market susceptible to manipulation by some large investors or FUD from the media. Additionally, if U.S. inflation does not cool off, expectations of interest rate hikes from the Fed will put pressure on the entire risk asset group, including Ethereum.
Looking at the third quarter of previous years, this has always been the weakest quarter for Ethereum in both price and investment flow, unless a systemic shock factor appears, such as the operation of ETFs this year.
The price adjustment ability of ETH: Can it 'dump' like Bitcoin after the ETF?
The risk of short-term corrections after the Ethereum ETF goes live is entirely realistic, based on the lessons learned from Bitcoin at the beginning of 2024.
Bitcoin ETF criteria (1.2024) Ethereum ETF (6.2025) Price volatility post-ETF listing Decreased 16% after 10 days Consolidating around $3,700 First month's trading volume $11 billion $8.9 billion Capital outflow from the market $700 million Not yet clearly evident
History shows that new ETF waves often attract short-term speculative capital, followed by the 'Sell the news' phenomenon - where old holders take profits causing prices to adjust to support zones, with Ethereum at $2,800 to $3,100 if it cannot hold $3,700. This has been repeated in the Bitcoin market in January 2024 when BTC's price sharply corrected after the first day of the 'explosion' of the ETF.
The market always reacts excessively before and after ETF events. It is likely that ETH will test the $3,000 area before defining the next upward trend.
Ryan Selkis – CEO Messari, July 2025
Technical supports at $3,500 and $3,420 are currently the focal points for analysts. If these thresholds are breached, the risk of a deep decline to $1,600 still looms, especially in the context of ETF capital being interrupted by global macro fluctuations.
How will ETH's value be affected by competitors?
Ethereum not only has to overcome technical barriers, but also has to deal with fierce competition from other blockchains like Solana, Avalanche, along with its own internal Layer 2 solutions.
The trend of shifting trades to Layer 2s like Arbitrum and Base helps reduce fees and enhance user experience, but it also 'bleeds' the transaction fees of Ethereum Layer 1. Solana continues to attract projects thanks to its high speed and low fees. Avalanche creates its own position thanks to its customizable blockchain capabilities.
Blockchain Advantages Disadvantages Ethereum Large ecosystem, good security, has ETF High fees on Layer 1, limited scalability Solana Fast processing, low fees Has faced network outage issues Avalanche Supports chain customization Not many large DApps
A CoinGecko survey in 2025 shows that 42% of new DApp developers consider choosing multi-chain or prioritizing Solana over Ethereum due to superior fees, performance, and platform openness. If Ethereum does not improve, the risk of market share erosion becomes increasingly evident.
What impacts do Layer 2s and the 'Fusaka' upgrade have on ETH's future?
Layer 2s are currently the key driving force maintaining Ethereum's position in the blockchain race, with upgrades like 'Fusaka' expected to significantly reduce fees for ETH by the end of 2025.
Currently, 75% of Ethereum network transactions have taken place on Layer 2s (Arbitrum, Optimism, Base), helping alleviate fee burdens, increase scalability, and retain users. However, they also reduce Layer 1's revenue stream, posing challenges for the core development resources of Ethereum.
If the Fusaka upgrade is successful in bringing transaction fees on Layer 2 below 1 cent, this factor will become a significant boost attracting large capital for long-term investments in Ethereum.
Vitalik Buterin – Founder of Ethereum, Reddit AMA June 2025
Fusaka is expected to launch in Q4 2025, with ambitions to bring transaction fees down to 'super cheap' levels, while also serving multi-chain integration solutions to meet the needs of global enterprises and financial institutions, thereby growing ETH's market value in the long term.
ETH leads the Altcoin market: Opportunities and risks in the upcoming cycle
History shows that whenever Ethereum surpasses important technical thresholds like $3,700, the entire Altcoin market benefits from the ripple effect of cash flow.
Since 2018, the ETH Dominance index has always increased sharply before Altseason phases, helping numerous projects like Polygon, The Sandbox, Aave etc. explode in market cap and trading volume each time Ethereum hits a new ATH.
Ethereum is the heart of the global DeFi ecosystem. When ETH rises sharply, nearly all Altcoins benefit from the FOMO cash flow pouring into projects surrounding the Ethereum ecosystem.
Trung Nguyen – CEO Kyber Network, presenting at Vietnam Crypto Summit, June 2025
The ETH/BTC chart is also signaling a reversal (according to TradingView), indicating that Ethereum may gradually outperform Bitcoin in performance in late 2025 and early 2026, if the momentum of ETF cash flow continues to be maintained and does not encounter major macro shocks.
What do the technical signals and current market context reflect?
In the short term, technical indicators are signaling caution even though Ethereum's fundamentals are solid.
As of August 1, 2025, ETH corrected nearly 6% after a previous 73% increase, trading around $3,624. The moving average (MA) is below the candle price - a sign that the market may switch to a short-term bearish trend. The RSI index has plunged from the overbought zone reflecting existing profit-taking pressure.
On the other hand, trading volumes remain at historically high levels, with the ETF floor and 'Ethereum whales' helping prices rarely plunge deeply unless a strong FUD shock occurs. Market cap is also growing in sync with the number of new wallets and staking rates, supporting the long-term holder sentiment to continue holding ETH despite short-term volatility.
Conclusion: Does Ethereum have enough strength to bounce back and lead the market?
ETF capital flow, network strength, and large investor confidence are all strong catalysts for Ethereum to return to a leading position. However, macro risks, summer effects, and competitive pressure force ETH to overcome the $3,700 threshold to maintain the bull run cycle. Success or failure at this threshold will determine whether Ethereum can open a new 'Altseason' or continue to be hindered by waves of corrections and increasing competition.
Frequently asked questions about Ethereum's outlook in 2025
Is the $3,700 level really significant for Ethereum?
Yes, this is both a psychological and technical resistance level, determining ETF cash flow and the FOMO effect in the market, confirmed by many CEOs and market experts.
How have spot ETFs affected ETH's price?
ETFs pumped over $1.7 billion into ETH in just Q2 2025, helping the price recover and create a solid floor despite macroeconomic fluctuations.
What short-term risks does ETH need to face?
US inflation, the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates, a sluggish summer, and the 'Sell the news' phenomenon after the ETF are the main risks that could lead ETH to adjust.
What is the role of Layer 2 solutions for Ethereum?
Layer 2 helps reduce fees, increase scalability, and retain users, but also shares revenue with new projects, promoting internal competition.
Who is the biggest challenge for Ethereum?
Solana benefits from speed, Avalanche from customization, along with new low-fee blockchains are important competitors in both technology and cash flow.
How will the 'Fusaka' upgrade differentiate ETH?
"Fusaka" promises to bring Layer 2 fees down to below 1 cent, facilitating an explosion of applications and attracting significant capital from global financial institutions.
Can Ethereum lead the Altcoin market?
If it clearly breaks $3,700, ETH will lead the new upward wave, triggering the FOMO effect for the entire Altcoin market as seen in historical cycles.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/ethereum-giu-3-700-usd-gia-se-tang/
Thank you for reading this article!
Please Like, Comment, and Follow TinTucBitcoin to stay updated with the latest news about the cryptocurrency market and not miss any important information!
