The probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in September has risen to over 80%. At the same time, the previously hawkish members of the Federal Reserve have also expressed views on the need for rate cuts.
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic: The U.S. nonfarm payroll data released today is significant. The revision of employment data indicates a sharp decline in the U.S. labor market. Employment data suggests that the U.S. economy may weaken more broadly. (Even with the latest employment data) I cannot change my decision at this week's FOMC monetary policy meeting. In many ways, the labor market still appears to be in good shape. I am not ready to raise expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025. The distance to the inflation target still exceeds the distance to the employment target.
