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📉 Main reasons for the decline
1. Macroeconomic pressures
The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates within the range of 4.25% – 4.5% without future cuts raised concerns about rising borrowing costs, pushing investors towards safe assets and reducing demand for high-risk assets like Bitcoin.
Strong job reports in the U.S. market reinforced expectations for a tight monetary policy, raising concerns among investors regarding speculative assets.
2. Trade tensions and tariffs
The sudden announcement of new tariffs by the Trump administration, including 10% on most goods and 35% on some imports from Canada, caused a global market decline including cryptocurrencies, pushing Bitcoin down over 3% within 24 hours to around $114,800.
3. Declining market sentiment and profit reductions
Sell trades from investors who recorded profits after a strong rise in the previous month, especially as the price reached about $122,000.
Historically, August months are a season of technical weakness for the market — the recurrence of the pattern in 2025 enhances inflation prospects.
4. Low liquidity and large trades
The decline in trading volume has made the market more vulnerable to the impact of large destructive trades, especially in recent downturns.
The incident of selling 80,000 Bitcoin (worth ~ $9 billion) by Galaxy Digital did not lead to a sharp collapse, indicating increased market maturity but may also lead to dynamic impacts when immediate liquidity declines.
5. Regulatory complaints and negative professional events
The reception of Bitcoin as a reserve currency or the factor behind the government strategic Bitcoin fund raised doubts among investors due to unclear operational plans, weakening confidence in the market.
The largest hacking incident in Bybit's history and corruption events related to well-known companies increased regulatory concerns and negative sentiment in the sector.
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🔍 Technical Analysis
The price holding within a range between $115,000 and $121,000 for a long period, followed by breaking the lower limit indicates a lack of confidence and the beginning of stock distribution towards selling.
The price is currently testing a critical support level around $114,000, and if this level breaks, it is expected to retreat towards $111,000 in the next phase.
On the daily chart, there is a 'Bullish Flag' pattern that rejected the price from the top at ~ $118,000, reflecting strong selling pressure and may lead to further decline.
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🔭 Future Outlook
Some analyses are optimistic and see the current decline as a 'bullish retest' before resuming the upward trend, targeting levels that could reach $133,000 or $140,000 by the end of August if technical resistance is surpassed and remains within safe trading.
However, warnings such as those issued by Robert Kiyosaki regarding a potential bubble remain, emphasizing the need for caution in case of continued economic or regulatory pressures.
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✅ Summary
1. The decline was caused by a combination of economic anxiety and trade and regulatory tensions.
2. Price support near $114,000 is critical; a break may lead to a correction towards $111,000.
3. The bullish scenario remains intact provided there is market discipline and a break above resistance at ~ $120,000.
4. Federal Reserve decisions, developments in trade relations, and recent regulatory legislation should be monitored to understand the upcoming trajectory of Bitcoin.$BTC $BTC