š° Market Highlights from Today
Sharp pullback below $115K: Bitcoin dropped amid profitātaking and newly announced U.S. tariffs, bringing widespread liquidations across the crypto space. Most major altcoins lost up to 8%.
Low intraday volatility: Over the past five trading sessions, BTC has moved less than 2%, suggesting a neutral-to-range-bound short-term bias.
Options expiration pressure: Approximately $7āÆbillion of BTC options expire today, clustered around the $117K āmax painā strikeāthis could anchor price range ahead of expiry.
š Trend Drivers & Technical View
CME gap in focus: Bitcoin price has entered the $113.9Kā$117K CME gap area. Gapāfill dynamics often attract price; once filled, traders expect a potential bounce toward $123Kā$125K.
Institutional accumulation: Stocks like MicroStrategy (Strategy Inc.) reported nearly $10āÆbillion in Q2 unrealised gains and hold ~597K BTC at ~$71K average costāmarket follow-through from such anchors long-term sentiment.
AI/technical models show tension: Grok analysis finds BTC in a tight coil suggesting either a sharp rally or 20ā25% pullback. Meanwhile ML-based forecasts from Finbold models average at ~$119K (+0.7%), with forecasts ranging from ~$117.5K to ~$121.5K.
š® Outlook & Scenarios
Scenario Trigger / Range Expected Move
Bearish Break below $113.9K support Downside toward $110Kā$104K
Neutral Hold $114Kā$117K range, CME gap testing Consolidation; next break signals trend
Bullish Recovery Reclaim above $117K resistance Potential drive toward $123Kā$130K, supported by ETF inflows & institutional thesis
Key levels:
Critical support: $114Kā$115K
Resistance overhead: $117Kā$118K, then $122Kā$123k.
šļø Regulatory & Institutional Catalysts
U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Launched via Executive Order in March, using seized BTC. While regulatory clarity improves, details on future asset acquisition remain murky.
Institutional momentum: Firms like Syz Capital are raising funds dedicated to Bitcoin; broader adoption is accelerating via ETF inflows and corporate treasury accumulations.
ā Summary
Bitcoin began August sharply consolidating below $115K, pressured by external shocks (tariffs) and profit taking. While immediate trend leans neutral to bearish, technical setupsāincluding CME gap analysisāand institutional inputs may support a rebound if key levels hold. A decisive break above ~$117K could lead to further gains toward $123ā$130K; a breakdown below $113.9K could test $110Kā$104K. Models remain mixed: some project modest upside, others warn of stronger corrections.