Never waste a crisis, Churchill. Since two a.m., Bitcoin has dropped nearly 4,500 dollars. Currently, there is a weak second retracement. The teaching chain believes this is largely related to several recent data releases and events. The ADP data is negative, which may lead some people to be pessimistic about the non-farm data tonight at eight-thirty. The Federal Reserve's decision at two a.m. yesterday also did not lower interest rates, making it normal to see some phase arbitrage. Currently, it has reached around 115,500/BTC and 2,670 for Ethereum, extending horizontally.
Today, the lowest point is only about 380 dollars away from filling the Bitcoin futures CME gap. This gap may or may not be filled and may continue to stretch. If it is filled, there is a high probability of a direct rebound. The teaching chain still believes that even if today's non-farm data is again negative and leads to a downturn, it won't drop too much, and at most will stop falling in the 112,000-113,000 range. The effective area of the previous horizontal box is 116,000-120,000, so we take 116,000 as the starting point for a breakdown. The box calculation is for a 1:1 space, and exactly at 112,000 is also a strong support level on the daily chart. In fact, the strongest liquidity clearing is around 116,500. This chip zone has been cleared, so from a liquidity perspective, it doesn't hold much significance.
The micro-strategy added to Bitcoin again the day before yesterday. Currently, the M stock's daily line closed with a shooting star. Overall, the trend has not worsened, but the overall atmosphere has weakened.
We should not only see what is in front of us but also look to the future. In the coming days, we can participate in the rebound. If we can hold above 116,500, we can continue to look upward. If we cannot hold, then we may retrace. If the non-farm data is negative, we may see a drop to 112,000-113,000. Here, due to multiple factors, if we cannot break the 112,000-113,000 range, then this would be a temporary bottom. Ethereum around 2,350-2,400 is also a good time to build a spot position. Churchill once said, 'Never waste a crisis.' Both fear and greed contain opportunities; it just depends on how you seize them.
