On the early morning of July 31, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as expected, and the market was already psychologically prepared for this. However, surprisingly, after the announcement, expectations for a rate cut in September plummeted, with the probability falling below 50%, which noticeably weakened market sentiment.
As a result, U.S. stocks and the crypto market fell synchronously: Bitcoin dropped to as low as $115,700, and Ethereum tested $3,670. Although there was a rebound afterward, this rebound felt more like a 'life-saving window.' For investors who failed to reduce positions in time at high levels, this was a 'liquidation' opportunity.
Looking back at the entire performance in July, whether it was Bitcoin, Ethereum, or various altcoins, the performance was quite strong, and the market once had a 'mini bull market' atmosphere. The core drivers of this rise came from September's interest rate cut expectations + technical rebounds + favorable policies like ETFs, but now this logic has uncertainty, casting doubt on the sustainability of the market.
The most dramatic scene in today's market: SHIB's 'short trap' strikes back, after shaking out positions, it may welcome a new wave of rise.
In yesterday's market, SHIB (Shiba Inu) became the most dramatic protagonist.
The trend was originally precarious: breaking the 0.000012 support level, losing the 50-day moving average, and shrinking trading volume—various bearish signals clustered together, with shorts piling in, and trend traders also joined the shorting queue.
But the result was a 'counter-kill': SHIB suddenly surged back, reclaiming lost ground and standing back above $0.000013 in a short time. This wave was interpreted as 'inducing shorts and washing positions'—after shaking out weak hands, it provides better entry opportunities for bulls.
From a technical perspective, the upper pressure level is in the range of 0.00001339~0.00001350. As long as it breaks out with volume, bulls may dominate a new round of rise. The key supports at 0.000012 and 0.00001256 remain relatively solid.
Bitcoin is ready to surge, the 'pressure cooker structure' may be about to explode.
Bitcoin is currently in a typical volatility compression phase. Since the last surge to $119,000, the price has been trapped in a narrow range, with amplitude continuously narrowing, forming a 'pressure cooker' pattern that is about to explode.
More importantly, each slight pullback has been supported by the 21-day moving average, forming an ascending triangle structurally, which is a typical consolidation pattern. If the resistance zone of $119,000~$120,000 is broken with volume, it may welcome a trend acceleration.
However, if the high fails and instead breaks below the uptrend line, one should be wary of testing support zones around 116,200 or 111,200.
XRP has stopped falling and stabilized, quietly forming a new structure.
Amidst the severe fluctuations of most altcoins, XRP appears relatively calm. The price has pulled back from a high of $3.70 to $3.00, landing near the 26-day moving average, followed by a slight rebound.
This mid-term moving average has played the role of a 'launch platform' in past market movements. If it can hold steady this time, XRP may gradually form a reversal structure with 'higher low points.'
Short-term focus should be on the $3.30~$3.40 pressure range. If it effectively breaks through, challenging $3.70 again is just a matter of time; conversely, if it breaks the current support, attention should shift to the support zone around $2.60.
The market appears calm on the surface, but a key turning point is approaching.
In the past 24 hours, although the overall market performance has not been intense, **'undercurrents are stirring'**. After the Federal Reserve's decision, market confidence has shaken, Bitcoin is gaining momentum at high levels, SHIB is reversing to kill shorts, and XRP is stabilizing its structure, each is at a critical technical turning point.
The next major market movement may erupt at any time; funds and trends are quietly being redistributed. For investors, this stage should focus more on structural opportunities, especially those tokens poised for breakout from low levels.
